One CUSO Board’s Decision on PPP Participation

In response to my Revealing Character blog, I received the following comment, used with permission.

Chip, just read your blog entry today about credit unions and government assistance. This is what I shared with my board a month ago. They unanimously agreed we did not want or need the money. Excerpts follow:

Board Members:

I am sure some of you are already aware of the governments $349 billion Payroll Protection Program (PPP) that was part of the CARES Act. The spirit of the new SBA loan program is to support struggling small businesses retain their staff and maintain ongoing operations over the coming weeks. For companies that do not materially change their payroll after 8 weeks, the loans will be forgiven. Essentially, the loan becomes a federal government grant for small businesses.

Based on analysis, the CUSO is likely eligible for the program and would be able to apply for nearly $XX mm in loans – equating to a little less than a third of budgeted 2020 net income. Given this would be a material sum, I feel it is important to engage the board on this decision and would appreciate your perspectives.

I have researched the program, consulted with those familiar with SBA lending, and contemplated this over the last few days. For mainly philosophical reasons, I currently do not feel we should pursue this program but recognize that this is a board-level decision. While we technically would qualify based on the very broad program definitions and limited documentation required, I do not feel this would be in the spirit of the SBA program — to support struggling small businesses that are contemplating staff layoffs/furloughs and in many cases their own continued existence.

This is a complicated and challenging decision. Nearly every business has had operations and plans affected in some manner by the pandemic and the future remains uncertain. Like your organizations, our CUSO has been impacted – but given our continued positive net income outlook across 2020 and broader balance sheet strengths, I feel confident we will weather this storm and there is no need to contemplate staff layoffs or furloughs in the foreseeable future. Additionally, while I have been told it is unlikely the SBA would publicly disclose the names of the companies that borrow, this is not the kind of headline I’d want to see in the trade press or used in anti-CU platforms.

Without a doubt, the money could be used for many purposes to support the business or further shore up our stability. For example, if we used the $XX mm loan to cover payroll for a period of time, we could choose to use the money we would have spent on payroll to create a fund to help struggling borrowers. But, then again, don’t we already have the capital resources available to deploy to go after $XX mm sized pressing needs or opportunities?

There are several different lenses one can look through to evaluate this decision. Another lens might be what our owners and other stakeholders might expect us to do (or not do)? While credit unions are apparently exempt from the PPP themselves, would they take the money if they were able to? I assume the answer is not binary across the industry, but it is interesting to think about in light of the decision we have to make.

 Thank you in advance for your consideration and counsel on this matter.

Presenting the Right Message About Credit Unions in Today’s Crisis

The doomsayers are already at work. Commentators use the March 31 data to prove their theory that an economic Armageddon is just around the corner. The end of everything we value. Unless of course we adopt their solution: more government, reopen faster, etc.

This pandemic is a health and an economic crisis. However, the greatest danger may be a loss of confidence in the spirit of who we are. Anyone who understands what made America today and why credit unions were created, knows that we will persevere and sustain.

Avoiding Self-Fulling Prophecy

But we must be careful not to project ourselves into a self-fulfilling prophecy of demise. That occurs when short term numbers or the peak of a problem is assumed in models and presented as the “new normal.”

Persons with an agenda will use these scenarios to enhance their position, resources or reputations. This happened in the 2008-2009 crisis and we need to learn that lesson in this new one.

These kinds of forecasts are impossible to make with accuracy. For they ignore the capacity of leaders and organizations to change and create “new normals;” that is, their innovative capacity to change the core assumptions models employ.

The First Quarter Numbers: A Case in Point

The first quarter numbers for most credit unions will show declines in the traditional measures of financial performance. ROAs will fall or even be negative, loan loss reserves will go up. Growth may slow. Delinquencies will increase, but certainly not by as much as will be the case for the June 30 numbers.

So what do the numbers mean? The most important point is that credit unions are sharing the financial pain and uncertainty of their member owners. This is the basic fact that is creating these numbers.

Credit unions are stopping fees, lowering rates, offering skips pays, and many other efforts to help members transition the unanticipated immediate economic shutdown required to stop the COVID virus.

Unemployment will reach heights not seen since the Great Depression. On average over 16% of the labor force (over 30 million) lost work in just one month. Rent, auto and credit card payments will be slowed or missed.

The members don’t know what their future will be; neither does their credit union. The credit union goal is not to hit an ROA goal, but rather sustain member relationships.

A Transition in Thinking and in Financial Trends

Traditional financial performance can be a very imperfect measure for how credit unions are serving members. At this time the numbers that may be the most unusual could be those that show everything is OK using traditional measures. More relevant performance analysis should focus on how many members are being helped and in what ways. For the ultimate strength of any credit union is its members.

Today, leading credit unions are reimagining how their resources can be used for members whose financial circumstances changed outside their control. This requires patience, creativity and new ways to structure member relationships.

This crisis is more than pivoting to virtual distribution, remote delivery and zoom interviews; the most critical innovation may be in the way credit is conceived. Loan terms may be extended, rates reduced, or payments based on whatever income is available. Outstanding credit may be restructured into A and B payment “tranches” in which the subordinate B tranche is the write-down needed to keep the member in the home or auto. It is the tranche that could be forgiven if the member cannot find work at previous income levels.

Monitor, Not Forecasting

Periodic reporting of the facts is important to ensure the industry’s collective resources are sent to the areas of highest need. Some credit unions will be more threatened than others because of the circumstances of their member base or community. The NCUSIF was constructed so that capital could be used to help these firms recover.

The greatest danger is not from the crisis itself, but how we respond. In both credit unions and government, competence, expertise and leadership ability is crucial. There is no prior road map to a new normal. Those in positions of authority must act with intelligence, recognizing lessons from the past. Credit unions have never lacked resources in a crisis, What is more important is wise stewardship of these mutual resources.

A Not to Be Missed Shareholder Meeting Online

I have tried several news channels during this stay-at-home era. The news presented on CNBC, Bloomberg Radio and TV, and Yahoo Finance channels focus on business economics. The interviews are with leaders in the trenches sharing their first-hand experiences and plans. Commentators are nonpartisan, seeking multiple views of current events.

On Saturday there is the opportunity to witness a program not usually open to the public. Because of the pandemic, Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting will be broadcast online. Anyone can tune in unlike the traditional in-person meeting where attendees must be shareholders.

The 2020 meeting on Saturday, May 2, 2020, begins at 3:45 p.m. central time. It will be live on the Internet from Yahoo with a pre-meeting show beginning at 3:00 p.m. central time. The address: https://finance.yahoo.com/brklivestream.

Warren Buffett, Berkshire’s CEO, and Greg Abel, Berkshire’s Vice Chairman-Non-Insurance Operations, will be physically present at the meeting. In addition to the formal business agenda, they will respond to questions submitted to three journalists. The questions, submitted in advance, will be chosen by the journalists according to what they deem the most interesting and important. Mr. Buffett and Mr. Abel will have no prior knowledge of the questions, but “they will not discuss politics or specific investment holdings.”

I’m tuning in. This will be an opportunity to see the leader of one of the most successful enterprises in America reporting to his owners. There could be some useful takeaways for credit unions, many of whom are conducting their annual meetings online.

Leaders’ Voices in National Crisis

In his 1936 acceptance speech at the Democratic national convention, Franklin D Roosevelt rallied the nation in the midst of the Great Depression with these words:

To some generations much is given. Of other generations much is expected. This generation of Americans has a rendezvous with destiny.

In today’s COVID crisis, the closing thoughts of a CEO to his board:

“What an engaging time in our history – credit unions and the country. What a chance to see the world change – adjust – evolve – and then decide what to do with it all. At 61, I am as engaged in my career and business design as I have ever been, but at the same time as curious about how life in America works as I have ever been. And that is a perfect place for a cooperative business to be; vested with my community’s future and busy looking to contribute on every level.

I hope you find yourself in the same place – for now is the time for people with a community-heart to engage their brains for solving the riddles ahead.”

Taking Time for Bipartisan Laughter

President Ronald Regan, House Speaker Tip O’Neill, and Senate Majority Leader Baker and their wives are sitting together in the front row of Ford’s Theater.

The comedic juggler Michael Davis is at his deadpan best. His timing and interactions with this high-powered front row are showmanship at its finest.

The most fascinating scene clips for me are the total joy shown by the three political families sitting together. One of the reasons they were able to work together in their political roles is because they could laugh together.

So, enjoy this 9-minute excerpt of a memorable performance, both on stage and off.

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6mbW-jMtrY)

Words of Wisdom During the Pandemic

  • I started life with nothing and still have most of it.
  • In our house we have done so much walking that the dog has lost ten pounds.
  • The stay-at-home orders are going to accelerate the digital revolution in society by at least ten years.
  • The reason for my hope is the re-creation of an overriding common purpose.
  • “We shall not cease from exploration, and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time.” – T. S. Eliot

Dual Pandemics

About this Cartoon

On Monday I showed a Norman Rockwell inspired illustration We Can Do It from the Vermont News Guide.

I contacted the artist, Noah Regan, to ask if he might create images that show credit unions’ unique roles during this pandemic crisis.

He said yes. Believing that a picture is worth at least a thousand words,  we intend to bring you periodic illustrations capturing the themes of the times we are going through.

Noah is accomplished in many different artistic genres: cartoons, portraits, illustrations and graphics. He lives in Iowa and is a member of Veridian Credit Union. His interests outside of art include cycling, listening to podcasts and audiobooks, writing in the third person, and discovering music (both old and new) on Spotify. More of Noah’s work can be found at ArtHouse Illustrations: https://www.arthouseill.com/about

We are seeking photos of credit unions doing the right things for members to inform Noah’s compositions.  Please email your ideas to me.

Art for Our Time

A combination of Norman Rockwell and Rosie the Riveter.

Illustration by Noah Regan and Joshua Sherman as it appeared in the Vermont News Guide (vtnewsguide.com)

(C) Joshua Sherman Productions, LLC.  2020.  All Rights Reserved.

For the story behind this illustration, the business pivot of Vermont Glove to making medical masks, click:  https://vermontnews-guide.com/recent-emails/

Singing Affirming Community

The TV is filled with instances of persons singing during the pandemic. An opera tenor from his balcony in Italy; students from their dorms in Princeton NJ. Clapping, pot banging and yes singing, on the streets of New York for health care workers.

Singing comforts and transcends the moment. It creates and affirms the communities we all belong to. And it can inspire.

Down In the River

For Mennonites, music is integral to their religious services. Their a cappella four-part harmonies of familiar tunes effortlessly engage the listener’s full attention.

An example is this three-minute video recording of Down In the River.

The five verses invite first sisters (women singers) followed by brothers, mothers, fathers and finally all “down in the river” to pray. The swelling chorus walking to the stage adding voices and parts with each verse, repeats the same question. The white, plain headdress on singers and audience reinforces the simplicity of the music’s message.

Going IN the River

But how does going down IN the river relate to now? When uncertainty causes each person’s fate to be more contingent than ever, deeper questions of meaning arise. This reflective instinct is heightened when walking to water-streams, ponds, rivers, ocean fronts. There is a double meaning in the “reflecting pool” in front of Lincoln’s monument in Washington D.C.

In the opening pages of Moby Dick, Ishmael declares, “Yes, meditation and water are wedded forever.” Is covid-19 this generation’s white whale?

For me, this gentle folk tune invites us (show me the way) to go down IN the river and asks: “Who shall wear the starry crown” in this moment?