Category: credit union data

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From the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt and Back?

Two days ago CNBC host Kelly Evans in her periodic column The Exchange offered the following observations (excerpts):

“Owning real estate in the “sun belt” has probably been one of the greatest money-making opportunities of the past twenty or thirty years. And Covid, and the rise of remote work, has only accelerated all of that. 

“Or has it? The San Francisco Fed just put out a new study suggesting that it could be the “End of an Era” for the snow-belt-to-sun-belt migration which has been the distinctive feature of U.S. population shifts over the past 50 years. Their argument? The South is getting too hot. 

“It may sound like a reach, but their data on population shifts is worth considering. It shows many more parts of the sun belt losing population from 2010 through 2020 than in prior decades. Places in particular like Western Texas and Louisiana. (Although Florida–experiencing an influx of New Yorkers in recent years–remains an exception.) 

“The U.S. population is starting to migrate away from areas increasingly exposed to extreme heat days,” the researchers write, “toward historically colder areas, which are becoming more attractive as extreme cold days become increasingly rare.” Cities like Baton Rouge, Jackson (Mississippi), Shreveport, Garland (Texas); and Long Beach (California) stand out as seeing population declines both pre- and post-pandemic, according to Census figures. 

“Even Phoenix’s population growth has been slowing. By last year, it grew just 0.4%–a quarter of the growth rate it enjoyed pre-pandemic. Houston saw big declines in 2021. . .

“The Midwest could be a big beneficiary of a re-shift.  “Markets that are more affordable, that are enjoying 80-degree summers while other people are boiling, might become a lot more attractive–like Cleveland,” real estate expert Ivy Zelman says, which could be one market in particular to watch. 

“On top of the heat and storms, sun belt populations are also grappling with issues like soaring home insurance premiums (in Florida), or flood insurance premiums (in Louisiana). Real estate prices have also risen significantly in recent years, negating a big part of the cost savings in relocating from the north. 

“And you know what? New Jersey (where author Kelly lives) is lovely, actually. The towns are small and walkable. Errands are all pretty close. The hospital I had my kids at was seven minutes away. Some towns even pick up your trash from the backyard! And being close to Manhattan is a pretty nice perk. Last year was the first year since 2010 that the state actually saw positive net migration. 

“If by some twist of fate this continues, parts of the country that were previously left for dead might be the biggest economic beneficiaries in years to come.”

Strategic Assumptions Turned Upside Down

A significant credit union advantage has been their local roots.  This is partly a function of the field of membership and initial sponsor support; partly the limits of capital; but mostly because this market focus and knowledge created a major strategic advantage over much larger, often out-of-area competitors.

Local meant being part of the community with loyalty passed down through generations.  Then multiple economic shocks and changing regulatory options provided credit unions opportunities to move beyond their historical boundaries.  Select employee groups, multiple counties and even whole states defined new market potential.

After the financial crisis in 2008/09 some credit unions began to seek out of state expansions to diversify beyond their local economy into more appealing growth markets.

A major focus was the sunbelt states, especially Florida. Florida has no state income tax, strong growth, favorable weather and is a retirement destination for credit union executives from the colder states in the northeast and Midwest.

Since 2015, investments via bank purchases, mergers and some new branches have been made by out of state credit unions.  Here is a current estimate of the totals of this activity in Florida by the home state of these “foreign” credit union expansions:

Florida’s Out of State Credit Union Branches

CUs                          Branches
AL 2 6
CA 3 11
GA 2 2
ID 1 1
IL 1 2
MI 2 26
MN 2 2
MO 1 3
NC 1 8
NY 2 2
PA 1 1
TX 2 7
VA 3 36

Totals                  23                                107

These 107 branches are 10% of the 1,045 credit union locations in the state.

Some of these locations undoubtedly serve existing FOM’s such as Navy, Pentagon, and Walt Disney World.  But many represent investments to diversify from cold weather states to warmer climes as in the case of the 26 Michigan branches.

In Nevada, 25 credit unions manage 120 branches.  Of these totals, 11 credit unios are from out of state and manage 50 of the in-person locations.  Mountain American based in Utah has the most branches in the state.

Now Climate Change

While the economic outlook, warmer weather and personal tax advantages may cause Florida and Nevada to appear as attractive expansion opportunities, managing a single branch or small system away from the home office market is a challenge.  The network effects from expansion in adjacent markets are lacking.  There is no brand awareness or legacy reputation in these new locations. Any existing members may live in the area only temporarily.

Are these out of state, diversification outposts hundreds or thousands of miles from a credit union’s primary service area worth it?   What is the ROA of these investments?

Might more stable and innovative future growth now be in areas around major cities in the northeast and midwest such as Detroit, Cleveland, Toledo, Buffalo. Grand Rapids, Milwaukee?  Will local and national infrastructure investment and less extreme climate now make these THE future growth markets?

Is a compilation of “odd lot” branches around the country via mergers or occasional bank purchases a coherent strategy or merely ambition ungrounded by reality?

 

 

 

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What the State of Credit Union System in 1944 Means Today

As the 80th Anniversary of the June 6, 1944 Allied landings at Normandy draws to a close, we listen with great interest to the living participants’ stories of that consequential event. They did their part. Now it is up to us that their examples of duty, service and honor be carried forward for freedom’s fight

One might also ask about the state of the credit union experiment at this time.  Are there any lessons relevant for today from four score years ago? What examples might inspire current cooperative leaders?

The first surprise is that there is a very comprehensive analysis on the cooperative system including details that are directly relevant for today’s priorities.   The source for this information is Bulletin #850, from the Department of Labor titled:  Activities of Credit Unions in 1944. 

This 16 page report contains historical tables, state and federal totals for numbers of credit unions, total assets and members, number of loans made and dollar amounts outstanding in each state and for national totals.  One table records the number of state and federal charters that are active from 1925 through 1944.  The cost of the report was just five cents.

Observations on 1944 Credit Union Trends

The impact of the war on credit union lending is central in this analysis:

The entry of the United States into the war was followed by a sharp decline in the credit union movement. Many associations were liquidated, membership fell off, and credit union loans showed a precipitous drop.

This was caused by a number of factors. Among them were the issuance by the Federal Reserve Board of Regulation W (limiting to 18 months—later to 12 months—the period of repayment of installment purchases or loans made for that purpose), the disappearance from the market of higher-priced consumer goods (automobiles, refrigerators, etc.) for which many credit union loans had previously been made, the restrictions on the use of building materials, the emphasis on repayment of debts and the inadvisability of incurring new obligations of that nature, and the increased wartime earnings of wage earners which resulted in a lessened need for credit.

However, some trends were looking better:

Reversing a trend that has been sharply downward since the beginning of the war, both the membership and business of credit unions showed an increase in 1944, although the number of associations was smaller than in 1943.

At the end of 1944 the number of associations on the register totaled 9,099, as compared with 10,373 in 1943. The 8,702 associations active and reporting for 1944 had 3,027,694 members and made loans aggregating $212,305,479. These represented increases, as compared with 1943, of 0.1 percent in members and 1.7 percent in loans.

Total assets which have continued to increase all through the war years, even while number of associations, membership, and business were declining, mounted to $397,929,814, or 12.0 percent above 1943.   

The Bulletin also provides a brief history of credit union chartering.  Here is one excerpt: 

. . .in 1934, therefore, a credit union act was passed by the Congress of the United States and the Credit Union Division was created in the Farm Credit Administration to oversee the carrying out of the law and render various services to the associations formed under it.

From that time onward, until checked by wartime conditions, the credit union movement expanded at an accelerated pace. Not only did the associations with Federal charters spring up and grow, but the older State-chartered movement also seemed to be stimulated to growth considerably faster than its previous pace. The rate of growth of the Federal credit unions, however, was consistently higher than that of the State-chartered associations, and by the end of 1944 the Federal credit unions accounted for 43.1 percent of the members, 36.9 percent of the loans made, and 36.3 percent of the total assets of the credit union movement.

The FDIC Supervises

In 1942 the federal Credit Union Division which was first placed under the Farm Credit Administration was transferred to the FDIC.  The FDIC administered the Federal Act but did not insure credit unions, only banks.

What makes the financial details in this report so remarkable is that the totals for the 9,099 credit unions were all maintained by hand.  Credit unions used only hand posted card ledgers and total tapes run on mechanical adding machines. There were no databases for quick comparisons, summaries and trends.  Given these conditions, the report’s historical tables and graphs are even more remarkable for their thoroughness and timeliness. (the Bulletin is dated October 16, 1945)

The Status of Negro Credit Unions

One of the most enlightening analysis is under a section called Experience of Federal Credit Unions.  Here are the details:

The Federal Credit Union Division of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has made available to the Bureau of Labor Statistics certain information on Negro credit unions and on all liquidations of associations organized under the Federal Credit Union Act. Unfortunately, similar data are not available for the State associations.  

Negro credit unions 

By the end of 1944 a total of 91 credit unions had been organized, under the Federal Act, among Negroes. Of these, 74, or 81 percent, were in active operation at the end of the year, and the remainder were inoperative or had had their charters canceled. For the entire group of Federal credit unions 74 percent were active.  

The following tabulation compares the 72 Negro associations for which data were available with the whole group of 3,795 reporting Federal credit unions. As it indicates, the Negro associations, although smaller than the average for all Federal credit unions and less well financed, were holding their own very well and even excelled the showing of the whole group as regards bad loans that had to be written.

Liquidation Information

Information for 1,109 Federal credit unions that were discontinued during the period from June 26, 1934, through 1944 indicates that the liquidated associations were in the main small. Over a third had share capital amounting to less than $500, and 68 percent less than $2,000. Only 18 (1.6 percent) had capital amounting to $20,000 or more.

Of the 1,109 credit unions, 785 (71 percent) returned to the members all of the share capital they had invested and some paid back even more; altogether the members of this group of associations received back $164,955 (or an average of about $2.60 per member) more than they had put into the organization.

The members of the 234 associations that paid less than 100 cents per dollar of share capital sustained an aggregate loss of $20,889 (about $2 per member). Some 65 percent of this loss was accounted for by the associations with capital of $2,000 or less, and 97 percent by those with capital of $5,000 or less.  

Sixty-three percent of all cancellations, mergers, and revocations of charter made in the 9 ½ year period took place during the war years of 1942-44.

What This Report Reminds Today

This remarkably candid and thorough report concludes with two pages of updates on Developments in the Credit Union Movement in 1944.  This section describes changes in league and CUNA organization and in state chartering regulations.

In just a few pages one finds an important factual and analytical record of the emerging credit union system by 1944.   In wartime we rightly honor the contributions and sacrifices of all who serve.  How in moments of extreme challenge, ordinary people do extraordinary deeds.

But these same contributions occur on the home fronts, unheralded and frequently taken for granted by their successors.   This unique Bulletin is a valuable document about the early contributions of the founders of the credit union system.  It is their efforts and commitment, the seeds they planted, that created the foundation on which today’s credit unions built their success.

Ordinary people doing extraordinary things for their communities in the past, now and into the future.

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A Relevant, Insightful Economic & Industry Update

Callahan’s May Trendwatch with first quarter 2024 data opened with an economic update from Alloya Corporate Federal Credit Union.

This opening analysis was one of the most thorough, well documented presentations on macro economic issues, credit union trends and Alloya’s own recent financial experience I have seen.

Todd Adams, CEO and Andy Kohl, Chief Investment Officer were the presenters of over 20 slides.  They covered trends in consumer spending, interest rate volatility and future outlooks.  They showed how Alloya navigated the dramatic inflows and then liquidity shortfalls in 2022/2023.

Below I excerpt several slides to provide examples of their analysis.   The full Trendwatch slide deck from May 14 can be accessed from Callahans here.

A key macro economic trend

The mortgage fixed interest rate advantage

Lower income groups most affected by price increases

Alloya’s balance sheet flows 12/19 to 4/24

Alloya’s lending to members in 2022/2023

The outlook for short term rates.  A Fed Funds of 2.5%?

So that you don’t overlook the rest of the industry analysis, here is Callahan’s opening slide on credit union’s core balance sheet growth trends as of March 31, 2024 versus one year earlier.

 

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How Long Have Bankers Opposed Credit Unions?

With the help of a young progressive, attorney Willard King, and several years efforts, the Illinois General Assembly passed the first Illinois Credit Union Act in 1925.

The Act’s purpose was “to safeguard the monetary deposits and other financial instruments of Illinois credit union members” through a system of supervision and regulation.

Bucky Sebastian was the internal counsel for the Illinois Department of Financial Institutions (DFI) from 1977-1981. One DFI responsibility was to charter and supervise the largest number of credit unions of any state system.  At yearend 1977 there were 1,095 Illinois charters, managing $1.8 billion in assets for 1,274,732 members.

Sebastian and King became good friends discussing the legal history of the Illinois credit union system and their shared interest in the life of Abraham Lincoln.

In 1977 the bankers were challenging the Department’s authority to permit share draft (checking) accounts for Illinois state charters.  There were also initial thoughts about how to update the Act to respond to deregulation. King’s knowledge of prior credit union legal changes was very useful in understanding the legislative politics for coops.

One of the stories King told was overcoming the opposition from established commercial and financial interests in 1925 to the new credit union option.  King shared the position of the Chicago Association of Commerce which was: “This is a bill to permit a lot of ordinary people such as blacksmiths and bricklayers to go into the banking business, where they will certainly lose their money.”

To answer how long credit unions have been opposed by banking interests, there is a simple reply: Forever.

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A Valuable Library Resource from NCUA

In following up an article by David Bauman in which he referenced his FOIA request to NCUA, I was directed to  NCUA’s FOIA Library.

Under the Frequently Requested Information section was what I had asked for:  NCUA’s response to Congressman French Hill on December 14, 2023.   Other items in this section included previous multiple requests that can be accessed by just clicking on the link.

Another section of the Library was the FOIA Request Logs  which include 474 requests going back to 2019.  I scanned the requests that were open and closed for 2023 to see what information had been asked for.

The log table has the date of the request, sometimes the organization, a description of the information sought and final disposition: granted-partial or full, denied, or “no records” responsive to the request.

I have reached out to NCUA to ask if anyone can use the FOIA log number to review previous responses without having to submit a whole new request—just to learn about the agency’s response.  When the reply is received, I will add to this blog.

In the meantime here are some of the more intriguing request descriptions, all of which were filled in whole or in part.

Selected Titles In the FOIA Library from 2023

Copies of all FOIA appeal logs by year from 2010

Records sufficient to identify all employees who entered into a position at the agency as a Political Appointee since January 20, 2021, to the date this records request is processed, to include a list of enumerated parameters to include resumes and waivers.

Documents and data sufficient to account for the monthly occupancy or vacancy rates for the agency’s five largest buildings (measured by square footage) from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2022. 

A list of federally insured credit unions with agricultural loan portfolios greater than $100 million.

The application, approval, and any attached materials from the most recent field of membership change by Thrivent Federal Credit Union, headquartered in Appleton, WI.

A copy of the charter for NBC (N.Y.) Employees Federal Credit Union, charter 22351, prior to its merger into XCEL Federal Credit Union, charter 16218. 

A list of nationally insured credit unions that have failed and/or been acquired since January 2001 to include credit union name, charter number, opening date, failure date, and acquiring institution. 

The most recent NCUA salary data.

1)The number of federal credit union mergers completed each year between 1980 to 2020; and 2) The number of active federal credit union charters each year from 1980 to 2020 (as of 12/31 or other uniform date for each year). Note: If information is not available going back to 1980, please provide information going back as far as NCUA records allow. 

A list of all credit union CEOs and volunteers as of March 31, 2023.

NCUA salary data specifically under the category of political appointee.

Quarterly lists of all credit union board members for each quarter from Q42012 through Q42022.

1)Field of membership (“FOM”) criteria and approval documentation for FirefightersFirst Federal Credit Union (“Firefighters”); 2) Firefighters’ application and documents related to add “employees of non-profit foundations authorized by their organizing documents to be for the benefit and support of firefighters” (“Foundation”) to its FOM; 3) OGC’s legal opinion and analysis that supports the addition of the Foundation to Firefighters’ FOM; 4) CURE’s office summary that supports the addition of the Foundation to Firefighters’ FOM; 5) CURE’s approval letter and GENISIS worksheets reflecting approval of the Foundation to Firefighters’ FOM. 

Entire consumer complaint file from 2013.

An Important Resource

This is a partial 2023 listing.  In addition to some interesting reading, it also shows the agency as a resource for names of CEO’s and volunteers (including even CUNA and NAFCU) and for credit union data or other files going back years.

There might even be some valuable credit union press stories in following up some of these past requests.

 

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Three Examples of Credit Union Success

Credit unions can be inventive when communicating their special nature.  Here are three different approaches.

A Few Great Numbers (KPI’s)

This traditional view of success is from the yearend numbers of an exceptional coop. This CEO’s team focuses on the 5 key performance indicators (KPI’s) in 2023 as shown below.

metrics goal actual
member growth 5.10% 4.10%
net earnings 1.00% 1.23%
service quality 82.25 83.3
P&S per member 4.64 4.61
deposit growth 10.00% 12.80%

These along with many others not shown (net worth, loan growth etc.) would be outstanding in any year.  However in this year of flat to down trends overall, they are extraordinary.   How was it accomplished?

This credit union implements the most traditional and important strategic advantage credit unions enjoy–“relationship banking.”  It provides stable deposits, long term members and intense focus on their community and its well being.

The organization does this by putting people first. The CEO tells employee and member care stories as a central part of his monthly updates.  Not words, but deeds, sometimes confessing honest shortcomings.

The credit union leadership has set boundaries, what to do well and what not to attempt.  No mergers, no bank buys.  They are in a market dominated by a super coop competitor ten times their size.

For those who believe scale is necessary for success, this credit union grew to over $700 million in 2023. It did so while recording the fifth consecutive year of lowering its operating expense to average assets ratio. In this five years the ratio has fallen every year going from 3.08% to 2.55%.

That result  is lower than the majority of credit unions over $5 billion.  It is because they know who they are as a credit union.

Celebrating a Community That Cares

For any credit union striving to communicate its role in the communities served, I would urge you to look at this latest video from Whitefish Credit Union in Montana.

It is from Josh Wilson, Senior Vice President for Marketing.  The video centers around people in all walks of life serving their community in local food banks.

It is a moving documentary.  So powerful it should be entered in the Sundance film festival. The stories honor those who serve and are being served.  It is a tribute to the small rural towns and the natural environment in which the credit union operates.

Watching it makes you feel good about this example of caring for others.  There is not a word about Whitefish’s financial services, which says everything you need to know about the credit union.  Enjoy.

(https://youtu.be/9t7xl3IQRw4)

The Special Opportunity for Credit Union Leaders- I Feel Like Makin’ Love

Yesterday I linked to a song by the rock group Green Day.  A fan, Bob Bianchini, sent me their latest video from two weeks ago.  It is a real picker-upper to start your day.

You might ask who is Bob Bianchini?  He is the only League President who simultaneously served in the state legislature.  That was in an era when credit union leaders knew how to get things done.

This video reminded me of Rex Johnson’s exhortation to the credit union audiences who attended his many lending symposiums.   He would close by telling them, “your job is to treat your members so well that they become fans for your credit union.”

Here is what genuine fandom looks like-in a New York subway station from Bob and Green Day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EiF28zBaOlI

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EiF28zBaOlI)

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Credit Unions Top Users of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)

At the end of the September quarter, credit union total assets of $2.25 trillion were just 9.7% of total banking assets.  However their participation in the special emergency Federal Reserve lending program equaled 27% of the BEFP’s loans at yearend or three times their share of total assets.

The September 2023 call reports show 307 credit unions with Federal Reserve borrowings  of $34.9 billion, an average of  $114 million.  For these credit unions, the Federal Reserve represents 66% of their total borrowings.  For 112 of this group, the Federal Reserve is their only source.  The largest reported loan is $2.0 billion and two credit unions report draws of just $500,000 each.

In an ironical coincidence with the BTFP participation, this total was also 27% of all credit union borrowings at the quarter end of $130.3 billion.  Moreover this $35 billion was only a small portion of the reported $173.4 billion in total lines these credit unions  had established with  the Federal Reserve.

Most of these loans were drawn following the banking liquidity crisis in March.  The Fed created the  emergency Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) after the Silicon Valley Bank failure to prevent a system wide run by uninsured depositors on other depository institutions.

This facility was different from traditional Federal Reserve programs.  Eligible collateral security was expanded,  all collateral was valued at par, not market , and draws could go up to one year.  The rate for term advances under the Program is the one-year overnight index swap rate plus 10 basis points. The rate is fixed for the term of the advance on the day the line is drawn down.

What Happens Next?

In a January 9, 2024 speech to Women in Housing the Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairman  for Supervision, Michael Barr, was  asked about the program’s future when the initial one year life is over. Here are portions of his reply:

Moderator: I wanted to ask you about the future of the BTFP. We are rapidly approaching the one-year mark, is this something where the Fed is planning on extensions, or any information to be released to the public on usage?

Vice Chair for Supervision Barr:  So when the funding stress happened in March 2023, over the weekend the Federal Reserve, FDIC and Treasury agreed to a systemic risk exception to least cost resolution for the FDIC. And the Federal Reserve and the Treasury worked together to create an emergency lending program for banks and credit unions, the Bank Term Funding Program that you are referencing. And the Bank Term Funding Program enables banks to use collateral that was in place as of that time – as of March of 2023 – that is, essentially Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities, to pledge those, and to be able to get borrowing against that up to a year at the par value of those securities.

That program was really designed in that emergency situation. It was designed to address what in the statute is called unusual and exigent circumstances – you can think of it as an emergency. . .we want to make sure that banks and creditors of banks and depositors of banks understand that banks have the liquidity they need. And that program worked as intended. It dramatically reduced stress in the banking system very, very quickly. And deposit outflows which had been very rapid in that short period of time normalized to what had been going on before and in fact maybe flattened out to some extent a little bit.

So that program was highly effective, banks and credit unions are borrowing under that program today, but it was really set up as an emergency program. It was set up with a one-year timeframe, so banks can continue to borrow now all the way through March 11 of this year. . .a bank could continue to borrow or refinance under the program and in March of this year have a loan that then extends to March 2025. 

I expect continued usage until that end date of March 11, but it really was established as an emergency program for that moment in time.

Arbitrage Opportunity Grows Outstandings

Two days after Barr spoke, the Wall Street Journal published an update on the program: Banks Game Fed Rescue Program.

The article reported that the BTFP pricing, based on the benchmark interest  rates average  plus 10 basis points, was less than the 5.4%  the Fed was paying on overnight excess reserves. This arbitrage opportunity has resulted in an increase of  $12 billion in more drawdowns since yearend even though  no liquidity strains were apparent in either system.

Credit unions can request extensions up to one year until March 11, 2024.   After that date, the statement above and the most recent activity suggest the program will end.  Credit unions should plan to either repay or tap other sources of liquidity.

And the CLF?

It should be noted that the Central Liquidity Facility reports no loans this year as of its November financial statements.   In fact it has initiated no new loans since 2009. The BTFP participation suggests credit unions certainly have liquidity needs. However  the CLF, designed to serve and funded totally by credit unions, is not as responsive as the Federal Reserve Banks.

 

 

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A Reader Writes on Mergers and Group Think

I  have written several  posts critical of merger rhetoric and the lack of any shared or concrete member value.

A senior executive who  participated in one of these events sent his reaction, which he asked remain anonymous:

My current belief (call it a strong opinion, loosely held ala Jeff Bezos) is that credit unions need to progress while returning to basics. Progress with less traditional banking/teller line activity, prioritize financial wellness and remote banking experiences. Return to basics with more transparency, increased collaboration and innovation.

It seems to me that in the pursuit of progress, the trend is to become tight-lipped. The other undeniable trend is the belief that scale is absolutely necessary and that the only viable method to scale is to merge/acquire. I don’t agree with the trends, but I don’t have anyone around me who seems capable of an open debate on the matters. 

Our greatest threat today, IMO, is group think.  Well…At least I hope you don’t mind me keeping the conversation going with you.  Currently, I have to stay off the record here.  I want you to know that I’m reading…and learning.  

Group Think & Credit Union’s Future

When internal staff are uncomfortable with the direction of their credit union, this is a sign those closest to the action see  problems.  But it is hard to speak up against a leaders who do not encourage dialogue, let alone dissent.

CUToday publishes periodic updates on proposed mergers with the details sent NCUA. Most are well-capitalized, many are small, but focused. Below is one data point that especially stuck out from each merger summary:

Name                                                Charter Date

Freedom Community CU, Fargo, ND:    1954

Mt. Carmel Church FCU, Houston, TX:   1954

Virginia Trailways FCU, Charlottesville, VA: 1949

Airco FCU, Pasadena, CA:      1957

Mt. Lebanon FCU, Pittsburgh, PA:  1936

Parkside CU, Westland, MI:   1953

United Methodist of MS FCU, Booneville, MS 1961

Elevator FCU, Olive Branch, MS:  1967

G.P.M. FCU, San Antonio, TX:  1970

Our Sunday Visitor Employees FCU, Huntington, IN: 1968

Lubbock Telco FCU, Lubbock, TX:  1940

The list goes on.  These credit unions have navigated  multiple economic crisis, technology evolutions, deregulation and regulatory backlash.

Yet their leaders have given up, even with strong balance sheets and decades of member participation.

These are not financial failures.  They are failures of morale.  The greatest threat to the coop system is not external, but internal.  The belief that the legacy of multiple generations of human investment they inherited, no longer matters.

Like any behavior, the more the pattern of giving up occurs,  the more acceptable the option appears.   Ed Callahan described this challenge as the danger of self-fulfilling prophecies.  If you think your team can’t win, you will probably lose.

The concern above was from a career professional about his credit union and group think.  To address his worry, he is looking for leaders who believe in the advantages of cooperative design.  And who realize it every day to further the legacy their predecessors handed to them.

FDR observed,  “Humans are not prisoners of fate, but only prisoners of their own minds.”  What better time for leadership that believes in creating the future, rather than surrendering to  “tight-lipped group think.”

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Future Forecasts: Who to Believe?

 

From Bloomberg News, November 4, 2023:

It’s been quite a journey for the US economy over the past several years, from pandemic supply chain upheaval to the Federal Reserve’s hyper-focused battle against inflation. Consumers have kept spending, and the job market has proven perpetually robust, with predictions of recession regularly falling flat.

Now, the central bank’s aggressive interest rate-hike campaign is bearing fruit as the red-hot labor landscape begins to cool, with employers slowing hiring in October and the unemployment rate rising slightly to a still-low 3.9%.

Employees do remain in a position of power, securing record-breaking wage hikes and contract wins, not the least of which was the victory notched by striking United Auto Workers against the Big Three automakers.

NCUA Chairman Harper on October 24, 2923 speech at Reach Conference:

Warning Signs

But, that good news is only part of the story. Economists are forecasting an economic slowdown as the lagged effects of elevated interest rates take hold. Moreover, the downgrade in the Moody’s credit ratings for several regional banks earlier this year signals ongoing stress on the financial system’s funding and economic capital.

During the last few quarters, the NCUA has also seen growing stress within the system because of a rise in interest rate and liquidity risk. In fact, this financial stress is reflected in the increasing number of composite CAMELS code 3, 4, and 5 credit unions. Assets in composite CAMELS code 3 institutions increased sizably in the last quarter, especially among those complex credit unions with more than $500 million in assets. And, such increases may well continue in future quarters. We have also seen more credit unions fall into the composite CAMELS code 4 and 5 ratings during the second quarter.

The increase in the level of reserves in the Share Insurance Fund — more than $6 million since the last quarter — is tied directly to the number of troubled credit unions. Further, we are seeing growing signs of credit risk emerging, especially in the commercial real estate market and among families with increasingly stressed household budgets, which have spent down pandemic-related savings and struggle with higher prices for goods and services. Although inflation has moderated over the last year, many households are increasingly showing signs of significant financial strain, as seen in rising delinquency rates for various credit union loan types, including automobile loans and credit cards.

The recent rise in home equity lines of credit balances could also indicate financial stress in some households stretching to make ends meet. . .

To compound those concerns, we are seeing an increase in net charge-off ratios at credit unions and declining annualized returns on average assets. Plus, the high levels of interest rate risk we are seeing can increase a credit union’s liquidity risks, contribute to asset quality deterioration and capital erosion, and place pressure on earnings. . .

 

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The Latest Cooperative Score:  3 Wins and 107 Losses

The credit union system continues its losing ways.   As of September 2023  there had been a total of three new charters and 107 failures that is, charters given up by boards.

The trend is the same pattern as 2022’s full results.  Last year there were four new charters and 146 cancellations.

While some characterize the closings as mergers (rarely liquidations) they are operating failures of organizations that have existed for generations.

When a previously independently led, local credit union becomes a branch or, in some cases completely closes its physical presence, and transfers members accounts to a new entity with whom members have no relationship, this is a business failure.

The dollar value of a credit union charter is $500,000 to $1 million or more.  That is the order of magnitude NCUA requires of organizers of new credit unions to raise.   Instead of repurposing long standing charters, most of whom from NCUA’s own characterization are financially solvent, this value and legacy is lost.

Is Anyone Accountable?

Why is this failing trend continuing?    Three years ago NCUA announced a new chartering approach consisting of three phases:  proof of concept, charter application, and final approval.  There is no evidence this has made the chartering steps any easier.

In February 2023 , Vice Chair Hauptmann in a speech to the GAC announced the implementation of a new “provisional charter,” an approval that would facilitate organizer’s raising NCUA’s required capital.  Eight months later, it is just an idea.

NCUA’s Prior History of Charter Support

New charter numbers began to show decline from an average of one per week in the 1980’s to only single digits (fewer than ten) for an entire year in 1998, again in 2008 and every year since 2011.   One might surmise that expanded fields of membership met some of the interest in new charters.  But a more likely reason is that there is no constituency promoting and supporting new charters.

In the past NCUA has advocated and promoted  chartering as an integral part of its supervisory responsibility.

In its May 1984 NCUA News, the agency reported on “Student CU Conference a Success,” a meeting of 70 students from 15 colleges with student credit unions or in the process of organization.

In an October 1984 article the News reported that “McDonalds has something new, and not fast food.  It is a credit union.  A New York City based franchise recently became the first in New York state to sponsor a credit union for its employees.”

These examples were part of NCUA’s efforts to increase credit union membership.   In its December 15, 1982 Letter to Credit Unions these were outlined as follows:

“In an effort to preserve and expand credit union membership, the Board has delegated to the Regional Directors the authority to approve and disapprove most new charters . . .

A major credit union expansion effort called CUR-84 was launched late in 1982.  It is a two-year national program involving the cooperative efforts of NCUA, state regulators, national trade associations, state leagues and others interested in strengthening the credit union system. . .  CUE has as its minimum goal 50 million credit union members by 1984, the 50th anniversary of the Federal Credit Union Act. This will be accomplished by chartering new credit unions where feasible. . .”  (page 5)

These efforts are profiled in the full 1982 NCUA Annual Report (pages 10-11).   It also highlighted the Regional Directors’ role.   “Region I grabbed the chartering and expansion ball and ran with it.  Thirty nine new Federal credit union charters were approved by the region during the year, 34 percent of all Federal credit union charters granted in 1982. 

This was followed by a list of significant new charters including New York University Employees FCU and Fidelity Employees FCU.  (page 15)

The NCUA’s 1983 Annual Report singled out new student charters as well as ones for employees of Dow Jones & Company and Channel, Inc the cosmetic company.  ((page 8).

Here are the total new charters granted for the years 1981 through 1985:   119, 114, 107, 135, and 55.

NCUA set the tone, promised support and organizers stepped forth.   When the board meetings were held on the road, it was a common practice to present a new charter in the region where the event took place as part of the agenda.

That regulatory inspired, system-wide effort is missing today.  The result is an industry with slowing growth more and more dependent on mergers, bank acquisitions and wholesale financial markets for expansion.  Without new entrants, any industry becomes mature, lacking entrepreneurial drive and increasingly dependent on external versus internal organic growth options.

Are we the Future?

In the December 1984 largest ever credit union conference of all regulators and credit unions in Las Vegas, Chairman Ed Callahan gave the closing charge.  He said:

We are the future.  But If credit unions are lumped together with banks and S&L’s, that will be a challenge.  The future depends on how you look at yourselves. Credit unions are different, and you must go public with that attitude. 

You must hammer away at the differences (with banks) with deeds as well as words.   For 75 years credit unions have been doing one thing.   To have an identity crisis now makes no sense at all.  Seventy-five years of success should tell you what the future is-it’s been people in the beginning, it’s people now and it will be people in the future.”

What does the first two decades of charter decline in this century portend for the future?  Where are the innovators who will promote and expand this unique system?