Wise Reflections on Two Topics:  RBC and the Inflation Outlook

Two experienced bank regulators on risk-based capital:

Comment by  leo.sammallahti@coop.exchange:

What banks perceive as safe is more dangerous to the financial system than what banks perceive as risky. Financial crises are not caused by banks engaging too much in activities deemed risky, but by activities deemed to be safe turning out to be riskier than thought.

Per Kurowski is a former Executive Director of the World Bank for Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Spain and Venezuela who has been on a decade long crusade against risk weighted capital requirements. Recommend googling him – if you come across a YouTube channel with covers of Latin American pop songs don’t be mistaken to think that is not him. It is him, and the channel includes also videos about his thoughts on banking. He also has a blog.  A recent memo on RBC.

As Paul Volcker, the former head of the federal reserve said:

“Over time, the inherent problems with the risk weighted bank capital-based approach became apparent. The assets assigned the lowest risk, for which capital requirements were therefore low or nonexistent, were those that had the most political support: sovereign credits and home mortgages. Ironically, losses on those two types of assets would fuel the global crisis in 2008 and a subsequent European crisis in 2011.”

The Inflation Tax-an Excerpt

“… So, yes, inflation is here. It’s real. And it’s slowing the economy. It’s like a giant new tax on households and businesses, and wage hikes aren’t a panacea. And now you have a Fed that has partly caused the problem, by overstimulating demand relative to the preparedness of the supply side, and ends up with an economic slowdown anyway. What’s worse, these resulting high food and energy prices hurt low-income households the most–the very contingent that the Fed’s super-easy-monetary policy was supposed to help by letting things “run hot” this time around.

And finally, on the fiscal side, the situation doesn’t look much better. Politico has a piece today about how the stimulus checks and child tax credits aren’t delivering for Democrats; “whatever political benefits were supposed to accrue…have seemingly faded,” they write. “Giving people money may not be the dispositive political winner that they imagined.”

It may simply be that voters are smart enough to connect the dots and realize what all this cash and Fed stimulus has done to the economy–and how little it can fix of the lingering Covid challenges.”

From: Kelly Evans, kelly@cnbc.com, The Inflation Tax, October 11, 2021

Experts Views on Why Risk Based Capital Fails

Following the 2008/9 Great Recession and financial crisis,  many commentaries and studies asked why the risk-based capital requirements did not prevent severe losses in banks.

The following are the conclusions from several regulators and studies.

 

Risk Based Capital’s Basic Flaw

Credit unions were very critical of both NCUA’s risk based capital proposed rules  in 2014 and 2015.   Among the major objections were:

  • Failing to document any objective need for the rule
  • Creating multiple shortcomings and inconsistencies in asset risk weightings
  • Establishing a competitive disadvantage  versus bank capital options
  • Undermining member value in  both costs to implement and higher capital levels
  • Providing open ended examiner authority to interpret circumstances and override the rule
  • Imposing a one-size-fits-all national formula for risk and capital adequacy for over 5,000 diverse institutions serving thousands of different  markets
  • Ignoring banking regulators’s experiences which led them to drop RBC in favor of a simple leverage ratio
  • Overlooking the negative impact of  RBC on the corporate system’s ability to serve members

The concept of RBC can be useful at an institutional level because decisions and reserves are based on specific experiences (delinquencies and returns) for an asset’s known historical performance.

However, what works locally does not scale up to a single national formula.

The Fundamental Flaw of The RBC Concept

No team in any sport would try to win a contest by only playing defense. To compete in any activity, an organization must have both offense and defense.

But a one-sided approach to financial soundness is what RBC mandates. It requires credit unions to reserve based on a formula for risk and ignores all factors for income or return.

Every cooperative succeeds by pursuing,  sometimes seizing, opportunity. Credit unions were begun as a solution for consumers that were not well-served by existing choices.

A formula that attempts to measure only risk means examiners and credit unions will be inhibited or even restricted in  responding to individual or unusual circumstances.   Especially members in a crisis.

Every credit union monitors risk daily when it prices loans or evaluates investment yields.  The projected return is balanced with an asset’s risk whether duration or credit, and in the context of the balance sheet’s overall ALM position. Using a single formula to evaluate these decisions distorts everyday business practice and experience.

Risk for an individual credit union is more nuanced than a simple formula that assigns  relative risk weightings for almost 100 asset classes. As any board or manager knows,  such an approach is not how asset strategies are developed.

RBC does not reflect pricing  to pursue market opportunities.  It imposes a single national risk profile to replace the accumulated financial experiences and judgments which managers now use in each of their  institutions.

Risk is not a bad thing. Risk is considered whenever a credit union makes a loan, a CUSO or other investment, or a fixed-asset purchase. The judgment in the decision is the opportunity to help a member or enhance the credit union’s financial management,  not how it conforms to a one-size-fits-all  rule.

Risk Based Capital Is A Tool, Not A Rule

The risk based capital rule is a mistake.

If there is any benefit in a single formula to assess a cooperative’s financial soundness, then NCUA should validate that  by using the risk-based analysis as a tool in examinations.

Imposing  a one-size-fits-all rule denigrates the knowledge and experience of credit union managers across the country. It is contrary to the purpose of the cooperative model.

If risk analysis were as simple as a single formula, then there would be no need for cooperatives — just one financial charter license, one common set of rules, and one way to serve the market.

Credit unions were started because the existing financial frameworks and ways of doing business did not meet the needs of member-owners or of their communities.

For more than 100 years, credit unions have used a reserving-capital process that requires they  set aside an amount or percentage of income as a cushion for difficult times and to meet minimum well-capitalized targets.

This approach has worked. It has well served  members, the regulators, and the American economy. Reserving  is a holistic judgment that balances opportunity and member need with the uncertainties inherent in any market economy.

RBC plays defense only by focusing on one very narrow factor in managing safety and soundness.   It adds nothing to the evaluation of specific opportunities or individual credit union business situations.

More importantly, if the complex formulas are wrong overall, or in respect of any asset category, that mistaken judgment could push credit unions over a cliff who followed the letter of the law.

Reserving beyond meeting the well-capitalized minimum leverage ratio of 7% is best done by the boards and managers who are directly accountable for their judgment, not government bureaucrats.