Category: Observations

A colleague sent me this report from the IBM Institute of Business: “COVID-19 and Future Trending Insights”

It summaries five ‘epiphanies’ from multiple surveys of leading executives.

“Our research suggests five key discoveries for the post-pandemic business landscape offering new perspectives on digital transformation, the future of work, transparency, and sustainability. Together, they provide a playbook for proactive leaders who understand that old ways of working are gone.”

My take away for credit unions

The fourth epiphany is the one that could be most relevant to coops.

“Epiphany 4: Some will win. Some will lose. But few will do it alone.”

The conclusion on page 6 reads:

“Within sectors, expectations are growing that broader reach will help define winners. Our data also point to greater reliance on platform business models and partner networks, with 70 percent of executives planning significant partnering activity inside their industry and 57 percent looking outside. Either way, they expect such participation to grow more than 300 percent over the next two years compared to two years ago.”

The graph illustrating this executive intent is headed as follows:

“Businesses are partnering up

Executives say they plan to participate in platforms, ecosystems and partner networks significantly more in the future than before or during COVID-19.”

The strategic question for credit unions: Who are the “partner networks” that are critical to your future?

One CEO phrases the challenge this way: “As we face the future, you cannot make the mistake of dreaming about going it alone as the next step. The next step is always best served by your faith to go at the edge through collaboration.”

Our Covid pandemic has generated a number of comments about how serious this is versus the seasonal return of flu.

As America’s pandemic deaths exceed 225,000, hopefully the chart below puts our current challenge in the proper perspective;

Also, make sure you get this year’s flu shot! We already have a vaccine for this virus.

“To be seventy years young is sometimes far more cheerful and hopeful than to be forty years old.” – Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr.

“Our movement does not exist because it was created from the top down. Rather, it was created from the bottom up . . . We did not tell Congress we wanted to be “safe and sound” institutions. We always knew that if we were lending to our members there was risk involved. Serving came first; safety and soundness was a means to the end of serving.”

– Ed Callahan, May 1999

The Long View

“When troubled times come, and surely they will sooner or later, you cannot make knee-jerk decisions. The latest economic projections for the next six months are not a good source of strategy. Instead, you must hold a vision and strive to achieve it.”

– Ed Callahan

Schools will no longer have to declare “snow days” for students. Instead they will just convert  to “Zoom days.”

And summer recesses can start right on time, as scheduled.

Amazon’s oral concierge speaker, Alexa, is a ready source for all kinds of factual information. I can ask the time, weather, latest news or sports scores, and even call up blog podcasts. Recently I added a subscription to play any kind of music imaginable, from “calming classical choruses” to John Denver or Taylor Swift’s entire catalogue.

As with all forms of virtual interaction, one presumes the creators are always striving to improve responsiveness through artificial intelligence (AI) programmed learning.

This means Alexa’s “knowledge” is more than being a verbal avatar for a Google inquiry. One can ask Alexa to tell jokes or ask what kind of day “she-it” is having. A seeming dialogue is underway.

Alexa and the Presidential Election

So, I decided to query whether Alexa had a preference in the upcoming election.

Q: Alexa, who will you vote for in the upcoming Presidential election?

A: Well frankly, I don’t think bots should influence elections.

I don’t know your reaction to this response. But the three words that struck me as significant were “I don’t think.” This is just a negative way of saying: “I think bots should not be. . .”

My query now is how or who is doing Alexa’s thinking?

Winston Churchill wrote: “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”

American credit union history covers almost five generations. The first four “eras” shown below established the modern credit union system. Each had a distinct theme. The amazing growth, and decline, of active charters is described on the bar graph.

What is the Current Era?

If the fourth chapter ended in 2008, credit unions are now halfway through the next part of their story. What will be the dominant theme from this generation of credit union leaders?

Some of the events so far are noted at right. COVID and related social crisis should certainly be added to this list.

How would you characterize the industry’s status at this interim stage? Some ideas might be:

• Consolidation, Concentration and Competition
• Regulatory Backlash
• Membership Passes the Century Mark
• The CUSO Era
• Maturing Coop Model Seeks New Growth Curve
• Etc.

The Value of Perspective

Seeing present day priorities through the lens of the past, can highlight what future outcomes might be.

The outlook of many of today’s leaders has been shaped by the 2008/2009 financial crisis. This interrupted the momentum and confidence from a generation that mined the benefits of deregulation for members.

The current crisis is the second in a decade to engulf members. Can credit unions be masters of their destiny or morph into just another financial option?

Churchill also remarked: “History will be kind to me for I intend to write it.”

Naming the current era is one way credit unions can shape their history. Please send your suggestions for the title of the chapter we are creating now.