Category: Cooperative Design

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What Bubble?

Much professional and political debate is occurring as to whether the real economy’s outlook, measured by GDP, and stock market values are aligned.

One source of uncertainty is whether the increase of fiscal spending will lead to greater inflation (more money chasing fewer goods) or just a temporary adjustment before returning to some steady equilibrium.  That is, a “normal” of both GDP growth (3%) and of inflation, around 2-3%.

Some facts to throw into the confusion.

The current price earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index stands at 40 times or so.  This is up from a same index’s P/E ratio of 23X one year ago.  Historically the ratio hovers in the mid to high teens over an extended economic cycle.

Tesla is priced today at a P/E ratio of 204 times.   Over the past twelve months of trailing earnings, its P/E of 128X is eight times the domestic auto industry’s similar trailing P/E of 16.5X.

The business pages are full of daily stories of meme stocks such as AMC or GME where pricing bears no relationship to actual performance.  Irrational exuberance?  Retail investors with too much time and surplus cash on hand? Historically low interest rates pushing up the value of assets such as homes and used cars? Bit coin and other cyber currencies–the wave of the future for protecting wealth or just a giant Ponzi scheme where another buyer proves the greater fool theory of investing?  Until there are no fools left!

How Should Credit Unions Respond?

Some members, those with retirement, savings or other assets in stocks and real estate are probably feeling confident about their financial situation. Especially if they just refinanced at lower rates.

Those without these assets, or just holding savings accounts earning .10-.50 basis points are undoubtedly less sanguine about their situation.  Living on fixed incomes with prices rising on everything can raise anxiety about being left behind.

No one knows the future.  Most forecasts are based on past data and current assumptions about the environment.  But learning from these past forecasts might just help us navigate current uncertainties.

The 1978-1979 Inflation Takes Off

In 1978 the economy was experiencing dramatic rises in short term rates and inflation was a constant source of governmental attention.   In that year the money market mutual funds began to attract consumer deposits from all financial intermediaries whose rates were fixed by government regulation: generally 5% for banks and 51/4% for S&L’s on passbook accounts.  No interest was paid on checking–prohibited by regulation.   No depository money market accounts permitted. All CD rates and terms were similarly government controlled. Federal credit union rates were capped at 7%.  Share drafts were us just barely introduced although all Rhode Island state charters offered NOW accounts and paid interest on them.

Illinois chartered credit unions operated with a 12% loan usury ceiling in place since first the first act was passed in the 1920’s.   The Department issued updated guidelines for certificate accounts trying to help credit unions remain competitive if they had sufficient earnings.   I can remember, as Credit Union Supervisor, offering Ed Callahan, the Director of DFI, my considered opinion that rates would never rise about 12%.  They had never done so in the past. That loan ceiling reflected the collective judgments of generations of lawmakers and policy analysts that gave the number an aura of human observational certainty like the law of gravity.  What could be closer to a natural law than paying simple interest on loans at 1% per month?

Ed didn’t argue with my facts or logic.  He only replied: “Don’t ever say never.”  Meaning that when someone asserts something cannot change, be careful.  One year later his comment was proven true, and the economy and all financial institutions started responding to Treasury yields that would eventually soar to the mid-teens and 30-year mortgages became unavailable at any rate.

Consumers transferred billions from deposits to money market mutual funds which could pay these higher rates.  This disintermediation was the ultimate straw triggering complete deregulation of the depository institution industry.

Credit unions transitioned this financial earthquake by continuing one critical strategy-serve the member well and good results will follow.  A credit union advantage is being partially shielded from the everyday pressures of the market and the power of stock price on performance and management behavior.

Some data today suggests that certain parts of the economy are overpriced.  Others believe there are still bargains to be had and don’t want to miss out on the action.  It can be an entertaining game to watch, but not one credit unions are supposed to play.  Fortune tellers can only make a living if someone believes in their crystal ball.

Resist  the allure of future predictions and focus on getting ever better for members in the present.

 

 

 

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Intergenerational Thinking and Co-op Design

The concept of paying forward is inherent in the credit union model.  Current leadership begins with a legacy of common wealth inherited from previous efforts.  The assumption is that the current generation will in turn pass an even greater legacy to their children’s children.

This is not the performance standard dictated for profit making firms in a market economy.   Rather the inexorable force of the invisible hand drives a firm’s stock price.   Success or shortfalls, are measured quarterly against explicit annual performance expectations.

What Will our Descendants Thank Us For?

Credit unions were founded with a different ethic of success.  The member ownership allows co-ops to play “the long game.” Performance encompasses obligations for the common good of members and their communities.

John Ruskin (1819-1900) was a leading English art critic of the Victorian era.  He was an art patron, draughtsman, watercolorist, philosopher, social thinker and philanthropist. He wrote on subjects as varied as architecture, myth, literature, education, botany and political economy.

His vision for human enterprise uses an architectural metaphor which I believe embraces this unique, intergenerational scope of cooperative design:

“When we build, let us think that we build forever. Let it not be for present delight nor for present use alone. Let it be such work as our descendants will thank us for; and let us think, as we lay stone on stone, that a time is to come when those stones will be held sacred because our hands have touched them, and that men will say, as they look upon the labor and wrought substance of them, ‘See! This our fathers did for us.”

 

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Two Reflections from Memorial Day

Opposition to the Vietnam war on many college campuses led to the cancellation of ROTC programs.  Subsequently the draft was ended with all branches of the military now relying on volunteers to fill their ranks.

One observer commented on the fewer ROTC programs and the elimination of the draft as incentives for college graduates to serve in an all-volunteer military.  He foresaw a possible outcome as follows:  Societies fall to folly when they draw distinct lines between their warriors and scholars. What this ultimately leads to is society’s thinking done by cowards and its fighting done by fools. 

What if we are called to serve and fail to answer?

The heydays of credit union charters began in the Great Depression with passage of the Federal Credit Union Act in 1934.   Post WWII saw another upsurge in new chartering activity.  From 1949-1970 between 500-700 new FCU charters were issued per year.

By yearend 1978, when NCUA became an independent agency, 23,278 federal charters had been granted of which 12,769 (55%) were still operating.

Many factors affected this chartering explosion.   One was the social ethic of the Greatest Generation.  The cooperative values of self-help, local leadership and community service were closely aligned with the ethos of the generation forged by depression and world war.

Some writers believe this capacity for social responsibility has been superseded in current generations by a more individualistic focus,  personal independence  and financial success.

A guest editorial by Margaret Renkl on this change of values was published Memorial Day, May 31, 2021 in the New York Times.

My question is whether this attitude might contribute to the virtual absence of new charters in this century.   There have been 193 FCU’s in first 20 years of this century, or fewer than 10 per year.  Here are several excerpts of the writer’s thinking:

“Young men of my father’s generation grew up during wartime and generally expected to serve when their turn came. No generation since has felt the same way. There are compelling reasons for that shift — the protracted catastrophe in Vietnam not least — but I’m less interested in why it happened than in what it tells us about our country now. What does it mean to live in a nation with no expectation for national service? With no close-hand experience of national sacrifice? . . .

 The need for some nonmartial way to nurture communitarian qualities is more urgent now than ever. We have lately been reminded of the absolute necessity for Americans to be motivated by warm fellow feeling across divides of region, race, class, politics, religion, age, gender, or ability; to cultivate a sense of common purpose; to make sacrifices for the sake of others. And that reminder came in the form of watching what happens when such qualities are absent, even anathema, in whole regions of the country. . .

If Vietnam exploded the unquestioned commitment to national service, the coronavirus pandemic should have been the very thing to bring it back.

That it did exactly the opposite tells us something about who we are as human beings, and who we are as a nation. There is more to mourn today than I ever understood before.” 

The Question for Credit Unions

To the extent that our society has lost capacity to “nurture its communitarian” responsibilities, how does this affect the cooperative model?  Credit unions rely on volunteers. Their greatest strength is the fabric of relationships they cultivate with members and their communities.   Has the model lost its way as a new generation of leaders takes control without a link or even knowledge of the qualities that created the institutions they inherit?

Have credit unions abandoned their capacity to cultivate a sense of common purpose; to make sacrifices for the sake of others now that they have achieved financial sufficiency and can stand apart from their roots?

Is credit union leadership today susceptible to the social folly described by the first writer?

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Should Credit Unions Buy Banks?

Two major credit union purchase and assumptions of commercial banks have been announced recently.   The $7.5 billion GreenState Credit Union in North Liberty, IA is buying two banks outside Its home state with total assets of $1.1 billion.

In April the $10 billion Vystar Credit Union in Jacksonville, Fla., agreed to buy the $1.5 billion Heritage Southeast Bank of Jonesboro, Ga., for $189 million, becoming the credit union industry’s largest bank acquisition.

Excess Cash on Hand?

With the average annual asset growth over 20% for the largest credit unions, the explanation that buying size to get to the future faster  would seem questionable.  Organic growth has taken off.

Is it possible that all the excess cash on hand is burning holes in credit union pockets?   If that is a factor than it is well to remember the age-old wisdom about money and value: asset values of banks tend to benefit from excess liquidity and suffer from a dearth of it, like most other asset classes.

Three Ways of Approaching the Issue

In upcoming blogs I will look at several examples, some pending and others completed, around three topics.

  1. Is the purchase of whole banks consistent with the public policy role of credit unions, a role that  justifies their exemption from income tax?  In the political arena, local and nationally, do these transactions help or harm credit union’s reputation?
  2. How do purchases benefit existing member owners? Are the disclosures and information credit union CEOs provide about these transactions adequate for existing members whose loyalty created the capacity to do these cash purchases?
  3. Looking at several examples, albeit with incomplete details, do these investments appear to be financially sound, especially in instances where the announced price is substantially above recent market value?

No Easy Answers and No System Dialogue

At each level of analysis there will be differing viewpoints.  NCUA has taken a hands-off approach signaling that these are merely “market-based transactions.”   I believe this is a misuse of the term.  At one point Chairman Harper, as a board member, indicated concern that “former consumers of the acquired banks will not have the same level of consumer financial protection oversight in their new credit union.”

Because an activity is legal does not mean it is wise.  Either as policy or in a specific instance.

Another difficulty is assessing the financial impact of these larger events on the purchasing credit union.  It may not be possible for years to know the benefits or costs on the acquiring credit union or the communities and customers  whose accounts were transferred.  For example what is the retention rate of depositors?  It is one thing to acquire assets, it is another skillset to manage them effectively.

As a general maxim, the purchase or merger of commercial entities tends to reduce shareholder value.  Before its recent disposal of its media assets, AT&T (T) spun off its DirecTV and other pay-tv services into a separate company, with private-equity firm TPG Capital as a 30% owner of the new entity. The deal valued the pay-tv services at a combined $16.25 billion, compared to the $66 billion that AT&T paid for DirecTV alone in 2015. (CNBC)

My goal in following articles will be to ask questions and to confront the seemingly nonchalant acceptance of this activity within the credit union community.   Through dialogue I hope credit unions can become more aware of what is at stake and what future actions might be, if different from the vacuum that now surrounds these activities.

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A Brief Motivational Speech for Credit Unions-For Anytime

Leadership involves passion. That is the ability to motivate listeners to rise above matters of the moment to strive for greater success.

The skill is rare. It must speak to the heart and the head, ideally with humor.

One person who achieved this art was a former high school football coach who years later became Chairman of NCUA. Whenever Ed Callahan spoke, he would often end his talks with a rouser. It was a throw back to the halftime coach’s exhortation to go out and win the game.

I miss this communication mastery in today’s credit union world. It is more than a celebration of financial accomplishments. It is a spirited message that uplifts by affirming belief in and ambition for the future of the cooperative system.

Then I found a 1994 VCR video that captured the feeling of this endless opportunity to serve people in what the speaker asserts is the “best movement in the world-second to none.”

You may not need your morning coffee after listening to this minute and a half excerpt. It is a momentary summing up during a lending seminar by Rex Johnson. His persuasive tone and style undoubtedly owes a debt to the Southern Baptist preaching from his upbringing.

He wants credit unions to “get rid of the box” when making loan decisions and to exercise creativity serving members in “these difficult times.”

The message sounds just right for today and maybe all time.

https://youtu.be/WMBRunsCVGw

 

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America’s Most Responsible Credit Unions

A headline like that would certainly get lots of attention. That is exactly what got mine: only it actually read, America’s Most Responsible Companies.

The January 14, 2021 article was based on an analysis by Newsweek and Statista. Companies were ranked on the three criteria of the ESG corporate model, environmental, social, and governance. The process included a pre-screening of a large universe of firms, as well as in-depth corporate social responsibility (CSR) reviews, and a consumer survey.

Companies were given a score out of 100 and ranked accordingly. With a score of 93.2, HP placed first as America’s most responsible company. The top 20 included nine tech firms. General Motors received the top score for social as the only firm with women as CEO and CFO.

The full methodology used by Newsweek is described here. The initial pool of over 2,000 companies was narrowed down to 400 which were then evaluated in a four-phase process. One phase was a survey of 7,500 U.S. consumers plus a review of the companies’ published key ESG performance indicators.

Is a Credit Union Responsibility Analysis Needed? Possible?

The purpose of the ESG ranking is to provide another, vital perspective on corporate performance beyond the traditional financial and stock price benchmarks. This recent model has been a lens used increasingly by large investors such as pension and mutual fund managers. Many companies are now publishing these additional indicators to enhance investor and public confidence in their business plans.

The primary rankings published on credit unions today are by size (assets, members, branches, etc.) or financial ratio performance—ROA, growth, or net worth.

Recently, like the corporate world, there are efforts to publish DEI statistics-diversity, equity and inclusion–for the credit union’s staff and board. This data has become more important as all organizations respond to systemic inequalities increasingly called out by events. Yet this focus is not unique for coops.

As cooperatives, credit unions have positioned themselves as more socially aware and responsible than traditional financial providers. Rate comparisons and how much members save annually are examples of financial value. But should there be more than simple financial markers if this unique design is doing something significant versus competitors?

A Cooperative Scorecard

Almost a decade ago CU*Answers, a CUSO 100% owned by credit unions, developed a cooperative scorecard providing a self- assessment created using the seven cooperative principles. The complete template is available here. The CUSO offered $50 for credit unions to send in their scores to encourage participation.

The scorecard’s purpose was to “operationalize” and measure the seven principles and to assist credit unions who wanted to enhance their cooperative advantage.

The form even included a scoring summary ranking:

Your Score How You Did
More than 104 points Congratulations, you are a shining example of a true cooperative.
80-103 points Not bad, not bad at all. You are doing well.
58-79 points Need to work a little more on your core cooperative values.
Step 1: find someone who scored higher than you and ask how they did it.
Less than 58 points You are a cooperative, right?

Today some of the key performance questions under the seven cooperative criteria might need updating, for example in responding to Covid. Note that none of the measures are based on financial performance. Rather the scores are indicators of cooperative conduct.

The Need for Cooperative Measures

With credit union performance today graded almost solely by financial outcomes, the result is an erosion of differences with other financial options. The cooperative “brand” is blurred. Member purpose becomes just “a little better financial deal.”

Most importantly, the advantages of the cooperative charter are minimized, becoming just a 7-part marketing slogan on lobby posters. When in fact the customer-owner relationship has been pivotal in creating the competitive advantage credit unions enjoy today.

A scorecard, thoughtfully designed, is more than a form to create another set of rankings. It should revitalize leaders’ attention on what makes credit unions unique. These coop measures can then translate into key performance indicators in business plans.

NCUA’s CAMEL ratings focus almost exclusively on financial performance, even when rating M, or management. This lens does not include critical measures of cooperative success, which in turn underwrite most financial outcomes.

This measurement gap is an opportunity for the system’s leaders to really “open eyes” to the credit union difference. And as the corporate headline above suggests, demonstrate each credit union’s “responsible” cooperative role within the American economic system.

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Credit Unions’ Annual Meetings in a Zooming World

The digital experience as a result of Covid lockdowns is so pervasive that demographers are calling current school age children the “zoom generation.”

But all generations are learning to navigate this ever expanding medium. Zoom and all its online counterparts are becoming embedded in every traditional social, educational and entertainment activity.  Church services, weddings, funerals and all kinds of family interactions have online expressions.

Colleges offer not only virtual classes, degrees, and lectures for current students, but also reunions inviting thousands of alumni.  They can participate by submitting short video updates instead of the traditional “class notes.”

Most employers have transitioned all routine office functions to virtual –hiring, staff meetings and all aspects of customer interaction.  Firms specializing in travel now offer virtual tours, some live and others recorded.

The Annual Meeting

One required credit union activity that has gone virtual is the annual meeting.  For many credit unions the event is a mere administrative formality.  Minutes approved, reports read or referenced, and election by acclamation as the number of board openings equals the nominations.  Everything is over in minutes.  The required quorum is largely staff and board.

Last week I watched Patelco’s annual virtual meeting, it’s 84th. Most of the agenda followed the in-person format.  The primary item was  CEO Erin Mendez’s annual update lasting almost 20 minutes.  It went far beyond the Annual Report.  The presentation was comprehensive, concrete and comparative.  Patelco’s financial performance was juxtaposed with credit union and banking peers, a truly professional accounting.

Her speech is worth listening to should Patelco post the video.

The Power of the Medium Still Evolving

Zoom communications offer a much more dynamic opportunity than just translating the current process into a new media.  Rather it is an opportunity to connect with members in totally new ways.  And thereby enhance the member-owner relationship.

But for zoom to transform this member experience, we have to get the old ideas and ways of thinking about this required event out of the way.  In addition to the virtual broadcast, other new capabilities via zoom include:

  • Expanded reach into every home and geographic area with internet, far beyond local members;
  • Instant feedback from attendees via polling and chat comments;
  • Breakout rooms for members to converse with specific credit union experts;
  • Speakers from any location, live or recorded;
  • Video can be integrated into the event;
  • Recording is simultaneous so the event is available anytime and is more complete than summary minutes.

These interactive capabilities are regular features in many zoom academic sessions.  They enable a learning experience much more effective than a one-way lecture.  One professor has encouraged his students to participate actively in the chat window using hashtags: #question; #debate to bring in real diversity of thought; #aha if you have an insight to share; #onfire if you desperately want to get into the conversation right now.

The “Woodstock” of an Annual Meeting via the Internet

Last year Warren Buffett held Berkshire’s annual meeting virtually.  Normally over 40,000 attend in Omaha, NB which has earned the occasion the title of “Woodstock for Capitalists.”  In 2020 the  entire agenda was broadcast live on Yahoo finance and attracted hundreds of thousands of viewers and participants  from around the world.

This year’s meeting will be held on Saturday May 1.  The three-part event Yahoo Pre-meeting Show at 1:00, Question and Answer Period 1:30 – 5:00, and the Formal Shareholder Meeting 5:00 – 5:30 will all be live at https://finance.yahoo.com/brklivestream.

Buffet does not use the full array of digital options listed above.  However, he is an example of a CEO’s total public access and accountability that is unusual today.

The event demonstrates Buffett’s ability to pivot and leverage the power of an enhanced virtual platform for the required shareholder’s meeting.  Buffet began his leadership with Berkshire in 1962.  If this 90-year-old can master the power of this virtual evolution for his shareholders, should credit union leaders aspire to do any less?

 

 

 

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The NCUA Board’s Actions Positioning the NCUSIF for the Future

The NCUSIF’s 1984 Annual Report describes the founding actions positioning credit union’s Fund and the cooperative system for the future.

“Between July and October 1984, the NCUA board considered at great lengths how to implement the deposit plan.  Every effort was made to listen to credit unions and their representatives,  Whether by phone, letter or in person, communications were continuous, spirited and open. Because of this input, a very workable plan for all was reached when the board adopted final rules at its October 9, 1984 meeting to implement the capitalization legislation.

First, the board waived the entire 1985 insurance premium.  Second, it ordered the distribution of $81 million in Fund equity.  This amount constitutes the Fund’s equity in excess of the 1.3% fund equity insured shares ratio the board established for the Fund, once the 1% deposit was received.   Because of these actions, credit unions will only have to transfer 85% to 90% of their initial deposit obligation to the Fund yet it can carry the full 1% asset on their balance sheets.

(Editor’s note:  credit unions transferred only .89% of insured shares and were credited with 1%-the Fund’s first dividend)

Because of this legislative achievement by the credit union movement and the regulatory approach taken to implement it, the Fund contains some very advantageous structural improvements:

  • The insurance fund will be fully capitalized at all times;
  • Fund growth will automatically parallel credit union growth;
  • Congressional concern about the Fund’s adequacy and the need to build public confidence in it will likely lessen. Future legislation will probably focus on the FDIC and FSLIC (which happened often);
  • The numerous operating options within the new deposit plan framework provide future flexibility for credit unions and for the Fund;
  • Credit unions will have a direct financial stake in the operation of their Fund.

In 14 years, members of federally insured credit unions have gone from the least well protected depositors in financial institutions to be the best protected.”

Source: National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund 1984 Annual Report, pages 6 and 7.

 

 

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An Insightful Co-op History Lesson

This week I listened to a 55-minute lecture on Rochdale and the Early Cooperative Movement.  Presented by the National Farmers Union, the speaker, Erbin Crowell, is an expert in the history of cooperatives.

The Rochdale reference is a name familiar to persons working in credit unions.   But the reasons for its pivotal place in history are rarely told.  Moreover, it was only one example of decades-long efforts by social innovators to improve the lives and status of the English working class.

These multiple reform theories included socialism, capitalism, mutual aid societies and cooperatives as England transitioned to an industrial, post-agrarian economy. One very successful  capitalist Robert Owen promoted both factory reforms and utopian socialism.  He attempted to establish his vision of an experimental socialistic community at New Harmony, Indiana in 1824.

This lecture describes the context in which Rochdale became a lasting cooperative example.  He mentions the Cooperative Group’s role in Great Britain today.  One learns that cooperative principles were not an initial framework for Rochdale, but rather assembled  only in the 1930’s in the US.

Taking this 55-minute journey will provide more than a glimpse of the past.   It presents the  cooperative concept as an evolving one, not a static design limited to traditional segments of an economy.

 

 

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Redesigning the NCUSIF: The Cooperative Way to “Finish the Job”

On Feb 8, 1984, NCUA Chair Ed Callahan gave his GAC keynote, an annual tradition.  He started by describing the state of the industry with one word: “fantastic”.

He acknowledged credit unions’ success in meeting the challenges of the previous two years: implementing deregulation and expanding credit union access across the country.

But there was one more structural change necessary to complete a sound cooperative system-redesigning the NCUSIF’s premium based funding.

The proposed change, depositing 1% of insured savings for continual underwriting, was recommended in a Report to Congress dated April 1983, Credit Union Share Insurance.

The Report’s  seven sections examined the history of cooperative insurance, risk rating, expanding insurance coverage, merging the three federal funds, and revisions to the current NCUSIF system.  An 8-page appendix listed over 50  credit union commenters, including leagues, state regulators, credit unions and the state cooperative insurance funds.

Why Listen to the Speech Today ?

This eleven-minute excerpt from the 14-minute recording is a critical moment in NCUA and credit union history.  It began a joint legislative effort to restructure the NCUSIF on cooperative principles, a design that has sustained for four decades. In these same years, the premium-based FSLIC failed, merging with the FDIC. The FDIC has had multiple periods of negative equity and still struggles today to find an adequate financial model.

The address is more than history. Ed’s “finish the job” challenge is a prime example of regulator industry collaboration. These mutual connections were empowering. It is a vision of leadership guided by “power-with,” not “power-over.”

Change was made through honest, open discussion seeking “a better way.” Over 2,000 comments were received to the proposals in the April 1983 study in which all parties had a say.  Chairman Callahan’s approach was based on “relational power” not assumed legal authority.  He was committed to teaming with credit unions-“we, not me.”  The cooperative way.

This excerpt is available at:  https://youtu.be/BmxvX7wQxgg 

I believe you will find this talk as enlivening and informative today, as it was years ago.