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Where the New Jobs Will Be This Decade

In an article using the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the analyst presented the fastest growing and declining job categories in this decade.

The economic health of every community-rural. small town or major urban center-depends on its employment opportunities.

Most credit unions were chartered around places of employment.  Corporations such as IBM or International Harvester had dozens of separate credit unions at their numerous work sites.   Then when the layoffs, restructuring or even bankruptcies occurred, the credit unions had to change their focus or go out of business.

Employment prospects are critical for every member.   Working from home  versus commuting or being on the road is now of interest to more persons  who have experienced this option during the Covid disruptions.

Credit unions are most critical for members when they first enter the work force, earning income and learning to be their own financial stewards.  Some credit unions begin this relationship even earlier with student loan options.

The demographics of job growth affects every one, their communities and  almost all organizations that depend on a vibrant economy.

The table below forecasts where the new jobs will be, their rate of growth, and median salaries.  Each geographic area will have its own pattern.  But this fundamental economic characteristic should be  part of every credit union’s planning process.

The full article includes graphs, a table of the fastest declining jobs (parking meter enforcement) and the implications for education and employer job structures.

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Counsel for 2022

Several observations on entering the New Year; but  first a poetic note of hope.

 

The New Year 

by Carrie Williams Clifford (1920)

The New Year comes—fling wide, fling wide the door
Of Opportunity! the spirit free
To scale the utmost heights of hopes to be,
To rest on peaks ne’er reached by man before!
The boundless infinite let us explore,
To search out undiscovered mystery,
Undreamed of in our poor philosophy!
The bounty of the gods upon us pour!
Nay, in the New Year we shall be as gods:
No longer apish puppets or dull clods
Of clay; but poised, empowered to command,
Upon the Etna of New Worlds we’ll stand—
This scant earth-raiment to the winds will cast—
Full richly robed as supermen at last!

The Right Attitude  (by John Horvat)

As we enter 2022, we must face a “not-normal” world that shows no signs of returning to order. Having the right “improvise-and-dare” attitude will enable us to survive. It will allow us to exploit any good opportunities to act that come our way. It will mitigate the disasters that strike us.

The Dalai Lama

When asked what surprised him most about humanity, answered “Man. Because he sacrifices his health in order to make money. Then he sacrifices money to recuperate his health. And then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present; the result being that he does not live in the present or the future; he lives as if he is never going to die, and then dies having never really lived.”

From a review of the Movie: Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

This December release starred Leonard DiCaprio and Meryl Streep.  The story featured two Michigan State academic astronomers who identified a comet heading directly to earth–and the President and public’s response to this “environmental” crisis.  One reviewer’s reaction:

I am alive. I exist. I don’t need to be told that humans will choose what feels good over what is right every time.

Honestly, I spent the movie rooting for the comet.

Shakespeare on Future Forecasts

Prophecy remains elusive, for who yet can answer Banquo’s “If you look into the seeds of time/And say which grain will grow and which will not/Speak then to me.” (Macbeth, 1.3, 58-60).

The Gift of  Enduring Ideas

As we begin 2022, I am in awe of the remarkable  year just past, and how members and communities across the country benefitted from cooperative efforts.

Credit unions from the earliest days of the pandemic stood tall with their presence, their passion and  dedication to service. When the temporary normal returned, they opened up offices with enthusiasm, and understanding—and an unwavering belief in the transformative power of cooperative purpose.

Credit unions ended the year historically strong. They are ready for a new time of  vital caring using  their  unique capacity to combine educational and transactional financial services.

I am eager to share  what I hope will be “enduring ideas” with you in coming months. One writer described this need as follows:

Amid the present insecurity, endearing objects (read high net worth ratios) are not enough. Our desire for certainties must also be addressed by turning to the things that feed the soul. We must turn to enduring ideas to anchor us in the storms ahead.

 

 

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We the People: A New Year Awaits

In the mid 1990’s, Navy FCU’s annual report theme was, “Our strength is Our Union.”  Today’s message is “Members are Our Mission.”

Both ideas affirm a community’s collective effort to work together.  The idea is as old as the preamble to the constitution, “We the People. . . in order to form a more perfect union . . .”

For 2022 that objective, could be the most important goal for the cooperative system.  Before looking at this challenge another observation must be noted.

Incredible Two Years of Credit Union Performance

In 2020 and 2021, the credit union system recorded two of the most financially successful years in decades.   The double-digit savings growth and continued member expansion were accomplished with zero insurance losses.  The results were achieved despite the sharpest recession ever caused by the abrupt March 2020 national economic shutdown.   And a pandemic that continues to cause disruption in every area of American life.

The cooperative system proved its resilience while responding to unprecedented member needs.

The 2022 Outlook

Projections for the New Year will include the present knowns:  inflation, how long and how strong? Covid’s continued presence; the rise in interest rates; ongoing economic growth; cyber worries and crypto opportunities; the midterm elections; and international trade and political challenges.

In my view these are not the primary cooperative challenges.  Rather the age-old tension between individual success and system interdependence will continue to play out.

For some there is no issue.  Their view is that  responsibility extends only to their charter.  Whatever the management and board decide to do is their business only.  That’s what the members “elected” them to do.

I believe rather that the system is interlinked in multiple ways.  This means  the reputation and example of one, whether good or ill, affects the perception of all.

The concept that coops take care of each other in times of need, includes both the member-owner and the multiple interlocking systems in which all credit unions operate.

Every credit union is open today because of a legacy handed to them and  starting all the way back to the chartering date.  These founders began with nothing but a vision of shared effort for the common good.

Some of today’s “leaders” have interpreted their responsibility the opposite of their founders, that is to return their  members to their pre-chartering state.   And on the way to charter dissolution, help themselves to some of the spoils.

The Cooperative Journey

Credit unions are now mid-way through the fifth chapter of their 112  year evolution.   Each chapter takes about a generation, or twenty five years.  The present  chapter dates from 2009 with the Great Recession.

The journey has always included two challenges.  One set is the externals of the economy, indifferent regulation, competition and ever present technology change.  Credit unions have rarely  been found wanting in meeting the realities of a market based system.

When failure occurs, it is the internal journeys where leaders become lost.   The idea that every members’ bottom line is the credit union’s, is reduced to only  the credit union’s bottom line.  Fiduciary duty  becomes  a  singular focus on financial success.  And when that becomes too challenging, the result is to throw in the towel and turn the members’ future over to another organization with no relationship or history to them.

The 2022  challenge

I believe this year will be pivotal as to whether credit union leaders can once again put member well- being above institutional and personal self-interest.  Can cooperatives restore their roots with the owners whose trust is their real strength, as Navy FCU proclaimed decades ago?

For it is We the People who are responsible for a more perfect union.  That is true for both our civic politics as well as our financial cooperatives.

 

 

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A Poem and Pop Up Musical Introduction to 2022

Guy Lombardo introduced America to Robert Burn’s poem Auld Land Syne  in his New Year’s eve show broadcast annually from 1929 through 1977.

The phrase “auld lang syne” translates from the Scots language to modern English as “old long since.”  It can be interpreted as “old times, especially times fondly remembered” or an “old or long friendship.”  It readily conjures up feelings of nostalgia.

Auld Lang Syne 

Robert Burns – 1759-1796

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,

And never brought to mind?

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And auld lang syne!

     Chorus:
For auld lang syne, my dear,
     For auld lang syne.
     We’ll tak a cup o’ kindness yet,
     For auld lang syne.

And surely ye’ll be your pint stowp!
And surely I’ll be mine!
And we’ll tak a cup o’ kindness yet,
For auld lang syne.  Chorus

We twa hae run about the braes,
And pou’d the gowans fine;
But we’ve wander’d mony a weary fit,
Sin’ auld lang syne.  Chorus

We twa hae paidl’d in the burn,
Frae morning sun till dine;
But seas between us braid hae roar’d
Sin’ auld lang syne.  Chorus

And there’s a hand, my trusty fere!
And gie’s a hand o’ thine!
And we’ll tak a right gude-willie waught,
For auld lang syne.

The English Translation

Should old acquaintance be forgot, and never brought to mind?

Should old acquaintance be forgot, and old lang syne?

For auld lang syne, my dear, for auld lang syne,

we’ll take a cup of kindness yet, for auld lang syne.

And surely you’ll buy your pint cup! and surely I’ll buy mine!

And we’ll take a cup o’ kindness yet, for auld lang syne.

We two have run about the slopes, and picked the daisies fine;

But we’ve wandered many a weary foot, since auld lang syne.

We two have paddled in the stream, from morning sun till dine;

But seas between us broad have roared since auld lang syne.

And there’s a hand my trusty friend! And give us a hand o’ thine!

And we’ll take a right good-will draught, for auld lang syne.

The Musical Version

 Here’s a musical rendition by  the US Air Force Band in a “flash” concert at Union Station in Washington DC during the holiday season.

The 8:50 minute video opens and closes with a jazz arrangement of Jingle Bells.  Auld An Syne becomes a group sing-along at 4:28.  But stay around till the end to see some of the most exciting hip-hop dancing to get your party juices flowing.  All this WW II flash back era sound is pre-covid, of course.  

“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khQN5ylb3H0&list=RDkhQN5ylb3H0”

A happy, and entertaining way, to start the New Year.

 

 

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Life’s Continuing Challenge

Investing More in Yourself-a retired CEO’s observation

“What you should never shy from is the effort you put forward for your achievements.  That includes even connecting the dots between achievement and effort to inspire those around you to reach for more.  Properly showing off your efforts is a good way to encourage others to invest in themselves.

Right now we live in a world in which many too readily  expect achievement without the need or expectation of investing more.

There is an  irony about “more”  for those who do not  examine different levels of  professional effort.  They over estimate the cost of their investment versus its rewards, and their time of opportunity runs out.”

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It’s a Wonderful Life and a Question for Credit Unions?

A great movie becomes a classic because it informs and inspires not only when released, but also for generations to come.  Frank Capra’s film has been a part of every Christmas season since its release at the end of WWII.

The story resonates because it portrays an individual and a community coming together to create a better life for all.  Because of its  popularity there are continuing efforts to address the film’s relevance today.

The Real Hero: Mary Bailey

Washington Post columnist Monica Hesse argues that Mary Bailey not George, is the actual hero of the story.

Mary deals with the same leaky roof and small-town limitations as her husband with one major difference: She never complains. She doesn’t need an angel named Clarence to descend from heaven and inform her that she’s actually led a wonderful life.

She knows intuitively that wonderful lives are not made by collecting passport stamps or military honors; they are made by investing in the community around you and wallpapering the bejesus out of an old Victorian.

“Why must you torture the children?” she asks George when he takes out his foul work-mood on the family. Why indeed? She’s the one who’s been home all day with a sick toddler and a clanging piano. . .

Once you see it, you can’t unsee it: The entire movie celebrates the personal sacrifices of a nice man while ignoring the identical sacrifices of a nice woman. Why? Because “It’s a Wonderful Life” assumes something that society assumed in the 1940s and sometimes continues to assume to this day: A wife is supposed to sacrifice, buck up, make do, slog through. But when the husband does it, the whole town must take note.

Communities With Pottersvilles

Writer Jared Block suggests the theme of home ownership is a critical area on which America is falling short.  Here is his interpretation: We’re driving full-speed into Pottersville.

George Bailey’s day-to-day goal is simple:

To help every working family own their own home.

“Just remember this, Mr. Potter: That this rabble you’re talking about, they do most of the working and paying and living and dying in this community. Well, is it too much to have them work and pay and live and die in a couple of decent rooms and a bath?”

 We desperately need more George and Mary Baileys — people of goodwill who serve instead of siphon, who are pro-human instead of market-driven, who knit together the fabric of society instead of tearing it apart.

We also need more people to build Bailey businesses — companies that give instead of take, that contribute instead of extract, that cement communal stability instead of undermining its foundations.

Sadly, homeownership will soon be as out of reach for the middle class as it already is for the working poor.  America is not heading toward an idyllic Bailey Park.  

I note one organization estimates America needs at least 7 million additional affordable housing units. At the current pace of 110,000 per year, supply will never meet demand.

The Moral Lesson: One Life Makes a Difference

Another observer asserts we need more of George Bailey’s “ministry” in today’s society.  The film from his perspective:

George Bailey who dreams of leaving his small town of Bedford Falls, traveling the world, and building bridges and airfields and skyscrapers a hundred stories high. But he never does those things because his father dies, he takes over the Building and Loan, and marries the girl next door.

George carries on a one-man crusade against Potter, a cruel, joyless miser who has milked the townspeople dry, forcing them to pay exorbitant rents to live lives of quiet despair in his broken-down tenements

Eight-thousand dollars meant to square the books of the Building and Loan accidentally end up in the clutches of Potter, causing George to fall foul of the bank examiner.

Only the intervention of a bumbling angel named Clarence saves George from taking his own life. To prove to George the value of his life, Clarence allows him to see what the world would have been like had he never been born.

Without the ministry of the Building and Loan, Bedford Falls becomes the twisted creation of slumlord Potter, a dark, hopeless, soul-crushing world of smoky bars and seedy dance halls, pawn shops and peep shows. As for George’s family, without him there, his mother becomes a bitter old woman, his wife an old maid, his uncle an inmate in an asylum, and his brother, whom George had saved from drowning when he was a boy, a corpse.

One life, George learns, touches so many other lives. Far from a failure, his life was the glue that held together his family, his business, and his community. 

The Film and Credit Unions

Some have opined that credit unions are today’s embodiment of  Bailey Savings and Loan.   Led by idealistic, hard working men and women and overseen by volunteers, all of whom are committed to uplifting their members and communities.

The film’s message shows success earned by overcoming personal, financial, economic and competitive challenges. Every credit union still confronts these today.   Including uncaring bank examiners.

The comparison feels relevant for another reason.  It celebrates the role of individuals have within a community.

Credit union’s common bond requirement is simply the identification of an existing group which hopes to improve its well-being by working together.

The feeling of “local” is created when users believe something is theirs.  It is not just a geographic concept, but also a sense of shared purpose.  And there is no more powerful sense of place than when members can own their home.

What makes the film timely is that the same challenges from 1946 exist still for members.  The film’s promise has yet to be realized by many.

The spirit of shared effort is still the most powerful coop advantage in a marketplace where competitive dominance is everyone else’s goal.

In the final scene, the people of Bedford Falls gather around Bailey and his family, donating the money to restore the Building and Loan which helped them achieve their own dreams of freedom, independence, and dignity.

The film poses an ongoing question being asked  today: It’s a Wonderful Life, but for whom? How credit unions respond to that challenge will determine if they are the true heirs of the film’s spirit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The Power of Local-Where People Meet Face to Face

The number of Christmas cards I received in the mail this year was overwhelmed by solicitations for yearend donations.   They came from near and far: Chevy Chase Rescue Squad (volunteers), theater and dance groups, churches, hospitals and many national organizations from Doctors without Borders, the Salvation Army and Planned Parenthood.

What each tried to do in their appeals was to stress their local consequences. Here is one request from a supporter of our local live theater:

Dear Charles,

I know you have many options for charitable donations during this year’s holiday season. By now, you’ve been flooded with emails, texts, and phone messages asking for your generosity. 

Instead of getting lost in the shuffle, I’d like to tell you why I’ve been giving to Round House for more than two decades and will continue to do so.

For my wife Lorraine and me, it started out quite simply: we wanted to support a local theatre serving our community both artistically and educationally. Round House stood out because it was right in our backyard, doing quality work, and truly impacting the community. 

Through our giving we have been able to help not only in Round House’s growth but also in enhancing Bethesda and the greater DC area—a place we have loved and been a part of for so long.

I am incredibly proud of how Round House has confronted the many challenges of the pandemic—from being one of the first theatres in the country to pivot to virtual productions and continuing education programs online to safely returning to live performances and in-person classes with robust covid protocols and viewing options in place to protect artists, patrons, and staff.  

Despite all that has happened in the world over the last two years, Round House has remained resilient and continued to be an asset to this community by offering bold, outstanding theatrical and educational experiences both virtually and in-person.

Your contribution helps Round House be a theatre for everyone and continue making an impact in the community. 

The Advantages of Local

Local is about connections, being involved with people where they live, work and play.   The impact is not limited by geography, but is rooted in people’s ability to see their organization at work.

Writer Nick Wolny who promotes online business effectiveness, has written about the lessons from brick and mortar, what he calls the entrepreneurial efforts of the “Original Gangster” (OG) firms.

My first job when I was 16 years old was working at a bakery. I was slingin’ scones and washing dishes until my fingers were pruned.

The owners were a husband and wife. The husband baked all the bread. 

We lovingly called him “Bread God”.

This guy was at the shop at 3:00am to start the breads… seven freaking days a week. 🥖

And he did it with a smile. 

In the years that followed – and eventually when I came to have my own business as well – 

Reminding myself of the brick-and-mortar hustle kept me honest and focused.

It’s easy to cut corners as an online entrepreneur.

In his article Four Insights Creators Should Steal from Offline Business Owners, he describes the advantages of local presence for which there is no on-line counterpart.  He closes the article:

In its current iteration, the creator economy has existed for about ten-ish years. Meanwhile, brick-and-mortar business owners have been grappling with the fundamentals of business for centuries. We could learn something from what they prioritize.

Credit unions have existed for 112 years.  Their virtual strategies for two decades.   How credit unions sustain the advantages of local while expanding online transaction capabilities is the critical investment decision all will continue to confront.

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60 Degrees on Boxing Day

Yesterday was bright, sunny.   Nature smelled fresh from overnight rain.

Today morning snow flurries.  Grey and somber.

Time for more Christmas songs and winter poems.

Velvet Shoes

by Elinor Wylie (1921)

 

Let us walk in the white snow
In a soundless space;
With footsteps quiet and slow,
At a tranquil pace,
Under veils of white lace.

 

I shall go shod in silk,
And you in wool,
White as white cow’s milk,
More beautiful
Than the breast of a gull.

We shall walk through the still town
In a windless peace;
We shall step upon white down,
Upon silver fleece,
Upon softer than these.

We shall walk in velvet shoes:
Wherever we go
Silence will fall like dews
On white silence below.
We shall walk in the snow.
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Singing From on High

The traditional Christmas story feels somewhat out of touch in our current stage of economic progress. Very much apart from present everyday experiences.

Except for a few countries, there are no shepherds tending their sheep by night.  No one to see angels announcing news of great joy.  Nor an angelic host praising God with song.

Or might there be a modern day version of this event?

Not of shepherds tending flocks, but shoppers reviewing  lists.   A very busy, packed department store of last minute consumers seeking just the right gifts.

Not voices from afar but the growing impression of a musical sound.  And then suddenly an angelic choir, seemingly everywhere and nowhere, surrounding the crowd with exultation.

Yes, it did happen.  Really.  And with modern iPhones, the whole event was captured for all to witness.   Some were stunned with awe.  Others sang along with the joyful noise.  Some hugged their neighbors.

No one continued shopping.   It was too powerful an experience to continue with everyday tasks.  It interrupted immediate intentions and changed the sense of where everyone was at that time.

All  shared this rejoicing in the midst of a very busy time.

You can feel the  emotion in the event.   And experience it,  as the glory of Christmas captures everyone, at least for a moment.  The smiles, the sense of  exultation.   The wonderment !

Merry Christmas on this and every day.

“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wp_RHnQ-jgU”

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A Season Uniting Two Cooperative Virtues

Christmas in all its joyous celebrations seems to walk an awkward line between secular, commercial activities at their frenzied peak and the religious meaning of the Advent season.

There is a minor echo of this tension in credit union history.  As the decade of the 1950’s evolved there was increasing friction between two priorities.  One group wanted to promote the business potential of the cooperative system versus the expansion minded pioneers whose primary intent was forming more credit unions.

Today these differing views might be categorized by those who focus on purpose as the driving force,  versus those who belief that growth through acquisitions of their peers and bank purchases are the way to secure the future.

How One Company Combines the Season’s Messages

Occasionally a firm will try to unite the business and religious aspects of this special season.   The UK grocery chain, Sainsbury, has created a unique “commercial” each Christmas for over a decade.   Each new effort commemorates an important value of the season while reference to the company’s business is at best tangential.

In 2014 their “offering” lasted over three minutes.  As described by Stephen Masty:

“it recreated the informal Christmas Truce that spread among soldiers in the trenches near Ypres in 1914, one hundred years earlier. Instigated by a British officer writing to his German counterpart across No Man’s Land, it spread up and down the battle lines as, for a few hours, the guns stopped firing. Yesterday‘s and tomorrow’s combatants sang hymns together and celebrated the birth of the Prince of Peace.

The 2014 ad was the first to mark the Christianity of Christmas. German and British soldiers start to sing “Silent Night” almost spontaneously; while the only visible product is a WW1-era chocolate bar. I find it emotionally powerful.”

“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWF2JBb1bvM”

The story of the ad’s creation is in an accompanying video of just over three minutes.  It demonstrates why and how a very large for-profit firm honors lasting human values while supporting their business.

“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2s1YvnfcFVs”

The videos’ message is that in the worst of times there can be humanity.  And this impulse is to be honored in better times.

Peace, for a moment, broke out in the midst of war.   Individuals overcame the ever-present demands of military imperatives and the survival instincts created by trench warfare.

The Blessings of this Season

I am pleased to have shared my observations about credit unions with you this past year.  

Cooperatives are a special way to combine our resources to help with everyday individual needs.  This is a practical necessity that has existed since humankind first gathered in groups.  Whatever the state of the economy.

This season reminds that sharing is an essential human value that is uniquely enabled by cooperative design.  Whatever the difference in operational priorities, our unity arises from the belief that the needs of others will be met with common, not just individual, effort.

 Merry Christmas.   Peace.  Goodwill.