Tracking Members in Transition in this Crisis

 Keeping an Eye Out for Our Members

 In a recent post I suggested that data analytics could be a powerful tool to identify members going through an economic transition in the pandemic. https://chipfilson.com/2020/05/a-critical-new-data-tracking-need/

Today’s 13.3% unemployment rate for May highlights the importance of tracking this trend at the member level.

Following is a series of graphs with commentary,  showing one credit union’s real time data. With total assets of $150 million, these graphs demonstrate both their ability to focus on the most urgent member situations, and to show regulators  competency to manage the risks, if any, from their special programs.

Credit Union’s Member Unemployment Curve

While we are tracking # of members receiving UE each week – this shows the # of unique members receiving Unemployment on a weekly & monthly trend.

The # of member numbers receiving weekly UE benefits continues to rise with a decline the last week of the May. Definitely something we will continue to monitor.

Monthly View:

Quick math showing # Members that received an Unemployment ACH vs Overall Members w/ a Direct Deposit in a month.

Mbrs w/ UE Deposit Overall Unique Depositors UE Rate
Jan 22 7281 0.30%
Feb 23 7357 0.31%
Mar 71 7391 0.96%
Apr 337 7500 4.49%
May 471 6894* 6.83%

*May is showing fewer depositors due to at time of pulling data – Soc Security had not deposited yet (we have been posting early in prev. months)

Keeping an Eye Out for our Members

We recently compiled some data to reach out to members that have made or requested loan adjustments – here is some data:

# Mbrs w/ UE Deposit UE Mbrs w/ Loan UE Mbrs w/ Loan that Skipped Payment
Apr 337 171 (50.7%) 32 (18.7%)
May 471 218 (46.3%) 41 (18.8%)

April and May were consistent. Approx. 50% of the members that received an Unemployment Benefit have a loan with us.

Further – of the 50% that have a loan, 18% of those members performed a Skip-A-Pay. (Lower than expected). This is something we will continue to monitor to see if a trend appears.

Reshaping the ACH Deposits:

We divided our ACH Deposits into 5 categories:

Tax Refunds, Govt Benefits, Unemployment, P2P Transactions, and Payroll/Other

Here is a March vs May comparison of Incoming ACH Deposits by Category

March 2020:

May 2020

Takeaway:

Unemployment ACH has gone from nearly non-existent in March ($60,000) to 8% ($1,620,000) of our ACH deposits in May.

Average Deposit Amounts

As we know, the Government has provided additional assistance to the Unemployment Benefits. That can be reflected in the data here:

And for the Payroll category the average deposit has decreased as expected.

Plenty more where this came from:

We can use Tool 232 – Common Bonds to analyze this group further. This will give us a complete breakdown of the 471 members that received Unemployment during the month of May – it’s an excellent resource.

Where this dataset is now built we can update this information pretty easily going forward as well.

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