Presenting the Right Message About Credit Unions in Today’s Crisis

The doomsayers are already at work. Commentators use the March 31 data to prove their theory that an economic Armageddon is just around the corner. The end of everything we value. Unless of course we adopt their solution: more government, reopen faster, etc.

This pandemic is a health and an economic crisis. However, the greatest danger may be a loss of confidence in the spirit of who we are. Anyone who understands what made America today and why credit unions were created, knows that we will persevere and sustain.

Avoiding Self-Fulling Prophecy

But we must be careful not to project ourselves into a self-fulfilling prophecy of demise. That occurs when short term numbers or the peak of a problem is assumed in models and presented as the “new normal.”

Persons with an agenda will use these scenarios to enhance their position, resources or reputations. This happened in the 2008-2009 crisis and we need to learn that lesson in this new one.

These kinds of forecasts are impossible to make with accuracy. For they ignore the capacity of leaders and organizations to change and create “new normals;” that is, their innovative capacity to change the core assumptions models employ.

The First Quarter Numbers: A Case in Point

The first quarter numbers for most credit unions will show declines in the traditional measures of financial performance. ROAs will fall or even be negative, loan loss reserves will go up. Growth may slow. Delinquencies will increase, but certainly not by as much as will be the case for the June 30 numbers.

So what do the numbers mean? The most important point is that credit unions are sharing the financial pain and uncertainty of their member owners. This is the basic fact that is creating these numbers.

Credit unions are stopping fees, lowering rates, offering skips pays, and many other efforts to help members transition the unanticipated immediate economic shutdown required to stop the COVID virus.

Unemployment will reach heights not seen since the Great Depression. On average over 16% of the labor force (over 30 million) lost work in just one month. Rent, auto and credit card payments will be slowed or missed.

The members don’t know what their future will be; neither does their credit union. The credit union goal is not to hit an ROA goal, but rather sustain member relationships.

A Transition in Thinking and in Financial Trends

Traditional financial performance can be a very imperfect measure for how credit unions are serving members. At this time the numbers that may be the most unusual could be those that show everything is OK using traditional measures. More relevant performance analysis should focus on how many members are being helped and in what ways. For the ultimate strength of any credit union is its members.

Today, leading credit unions are reimagining how their resources can be used for members whose financial circumstances changed outside their control. This requires patience, creativity and new ways to structure member relationships.

This crisis is more than pivoting to virtual distribution, remote delivery and zoom interviews; the most critical innovation may be in the way credit is conceived. Loan terms may be extended, rates reduced, or payments based on whatever income is available. Outstanding credit may be restructured into A and B payment “tranches” in which the subordinate B tranche is the write-down needed to keep the member in the home or auto. It is the tranche that could be forgiven if the member cannot find work at previous income levels.

Monitor, Not Forecasting

Periodic reporting of the facts is important to ensure the industry’s collective resources are sent to the areas of highest need. Some credit unions will be more threatened than others because of the circumstances of their member base or community. The NCUSIF was constructed so that capital could be used to help these firms recover.

The greatest danger is not from the crisis itself, but how we respond. In both credit unions and government, competence, expertise and leadership ability is crucial. There is no prior road map to a new normal. Those in positions of authority must act with intelligence, recognizing lessons from the past. Credit unions have never lacked resources in a crisis, What is more important is wise stewardship of these mutual resources.

Revealing Character

Many have observed, “crises do not create character; they reveal it.”

Recently a CEO asked if I had heard about PPF funding for credit union entities such as CUSO’s or foundations. Credit unions are not eligible. He heard reports that several entities had applied. That worried him. The concern was that such efforts compromised the claim that we take care of our own, the self-help basis of cooperative design.

I replied that if the economy continues to falter requiring hundreds of billions more of government grants, a much bigger challenge will confront the country and credit unions. Specifically, how will the government pay for all this additional spending and debt issuance. The answer is obvious: new taxes.

Therefore, credit unions must demonstrate and document our self-reliance, self-funding mutuality with members during this time. Did we use our tax-free net income and capital to benefit members, or did we just hoard it?

A Skeptical Take: Fake It Till the Fourth Quarter

Another view is that some will cry NCUA made them so dependent on “help from on high” that they could not stand alone with any integrity. Can this generation of credit union leaders rekindle the spirit of cooperative innovation and entrepreneurship? Or, will they be tempted to seek “paint by the numbers” handouts from bureaucrats who never met a payroll or face-to-face with members?

Is it possible to at least fake it until the fourth quarter and the clock runs out?

The Cooperative Way Forward

Credit unions’ purpose is to use each day as a day to do something better for members. It is reasonable to see the crisis as bigger than any one of us, as individual members or credit unions. But it is not bigger than all of us together.

That confidence arises from knowing we were created to do things that had not been done before. We do not shy away when that challenge comes again. That is why we are here.

A Not to Be Missed Shareholder Meeting Online

I have tried several news channels during this stay-at-home era. The news presented on CNBC, Bloomberg Radio and TV, and Yahoo Finance channels focus on business economics. The interviews are with leaders in the trenches sharing their first-hand experiences and plans. Commentators are nonpartisan, seeking multiple views of current events.

On Saturday there is the opportunity to witness a program not usually open to the public. Because of the pandemic, Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting will be broadcast online. Anyone can tune in unlike the traditional in-person meeting where attendees must be shareholders.

The 2020 meeting on Saturday, May 2, 2020, begins at 3:45 p.m. central time. It will be live on the Internet from Yahoo with a pre-meeting show beginning at 3:00 p.m. central time. The address: https://finance.yahoo.com/brklivestream.

Warren Buffett, Berkshire’s CEO, and Greg Abel, Berkshire’s Vice Chairman-Non-Insurance Operations, will be physically present at the meeting. In addition to the formal business agenda, they will respond to questions submitted to three journalists. The questions, submitted in advance, will be chosen by the journalists according to what they deem the most interesting and important. Mr. Buffett and Mr. Abel will have no prior knowledge of the questions, but “they will not discuss politics or specific investment holdings.”

I’m tuning in. This will be an opportunity to see the leader of one of the most successful enterprises in America reporting to his owners. There could be some useful takeaways for credit unions, many of whom are conducting their annual meetings online.

Leaders’ Voices in National Crisis

In his 1936 acceptance speech at the Democratic national convention, Franklin D Roosevelt rallied the nation in the midst of the Great Depression with these words:

To some generations much is given. Of other generations much is expected. This generation of Americans has a rendezvous with destiny.

In today’s COVID crisis, the closing thoughts of a CEO to his board:

“What an engaging time in our history – credit unions and the country. What a chance to see the world change – adjust – evolve – and then decide what to do with it all. At 61, I am as engaged in my career and business design as I have ever been, but at the same time as curious about how life in America works as I have ever been. And that is a perfect place for a cooperative business to be; vested with my community’s future and busy looking to contribute on every level.

I hope you find yourself in the same place – for now is the time for people with a community-heart to engage their brains for solving the riddles ahead.”

Directing Traffic For Essential Service

Access to cash is members’ top financial worry in a crisis. Some are fortunate to have savings, steady income or retirement to draw upon. Others, living paycheck to paycheck, must rely on credit. These two options are illustrated from actual events. In person lobbies are closed. The CEO directs members to one of two “drive-throughs” serving everyone, regardless of circumstance.

Born in a Crisis

In 1932 during the national depression, workers at Wright Field in Dayton, Ohio decided to chip in 25¢ a week to help an ailing co-worker and his struggling family. Recognizing a great idea, they later took a quarter each payday to create a fund for fellow workers who might one day also need help. It was called “The Sunshine Fund.”

That shoebox of money became Wright-Patt Credit Union, Ohio’s largest, with over $5 billion in assets.

Those seeds planted 90 years ago now serve 400,000 members in central and southwestern Ohio during an economic shut down some are comparing to the Great Depression.

Managing a crisis like COVID-19, without any playbook or past experiences to draw from is challenging. The issues that come up are things most wouldn’t have imagined a few short months ago. For CEO Doug Fecher, there are only two rules: “Try to do the right thing as best you see it; and, do those things the very best you can. If we do those two things, we’ll be okay.”

The following excerpts from Fecher’s April 15 board crisis update documents the intensity of added activities undertaken in this “essential service.”

From CEO Fecher’s WPCU Weekly Board Update (with permission)

The big news this week is the government’s release of stimulus funds.

  • WPCU today received and posted about 81,000 ACH deposits for $147MM of government stimulus funds

Lending

  • We’ve processed 10,700 skip-a-pays for about $3.6 million in payment relief.
  • We’ve made 211 disaster relief loans totaling $260K.
  • First mortgage activity, especially refinancings due to lower rates, continues brisk with 240 closed mortgages so far this month.
  • We release full government payment proceeds to members even when members may have a balancing owing or negative deposit account balance with WPCU.
  • As of Friday, April 10th, we’ve processed 128 forbearances on 1st mortgage loans in the WPCU portfolio.

Commercial Lending

  • We have obtained SBA approval on 180 PPP applications for a total of $37MM in funding.
  • The PPP loans approved so far support nearly 4,600 jobs. Loan amounts range from approximately $300K to $2.8MM.
  • An additional fifty PPP applications are in process raising our total to $40MM.
  • About 300 commercial applications are in queue as of April 14th.

Partner Update

  • We have no employees confirmed with COVID-19.
  • Thirteen employees are in physician-directed self-quarantine.
  • We pay COVID-19 medical expenses for employees and family members on the WPCU health plan.
  • Absenteeism has decreased as more Partners have been moved to work from home. For example, member help center absenteeism fell to 1% this week, from 14% on March 30th.

Operating Updates

  • Transaction volume is much higher this week across the board. We received 7,376 calls into the member help center on April 14th, compared to 5,780 calls as of March 30th.
  • Member center and member help center activity jumped this week with the release of government stimulus checks. This is resulting in longer than usual lines in drive-thru lanes and on telephones.
  • We are seeing increased attempts at fraud.
  • Marketing communicates on everything from encouraging use of remote services, to fraud avoidance, to helping members with their government stimulus checks.

Liquidity as of April 13th

Our liquidity coverage ratio is 3.46.

This means we have almost three-and-a-half times the maximum cash draw down in the last thirty days in available liquidity.

Taking Time for Bipartisan Laughter

President Ronald Regan, House Speaker Tip O’Neill, and Senate Majority Leader Baker and their wives are sitting together in the front row of Ford’s Theater.

The comedic juggler Michael Davis is at his deadpan best. His timing and interactions with this high-powered front row are showmanship at its finest.

The most fascinating scene clips for me are the total joy shown by the three political families sitting together. One of the reasons they were able to work together in their political roles is because they could laugh together.

So, enjoy this 9-minute excerpt of a memorable performance, both on stage and off.

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6mbW-jMtrY)

Words of Wisdom During the Pandemic

  • I started life with nothing and still have most of it.
  • In our house we have done so much walking that the dog has lost ten pounds.
  • The stay-at-home orders are going to accelerate the digital revolution in society by at least ten years.
  • The reason for my hope is the re-creation of an overriding common purpose.
  • “We shall not cease from exploration, and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time.” – T. S. Eliot

NCUA’s Leadership In a Crisis

NCUA’s actions in a crisis matter–for good or ill. So far, its efforts have ranged between two poles. On the one hand there are moves to lessen regulatory and compliance restraints to enable credit unions to respond to member needs with innovative, non-traditional practices.

This instinct is excellent. For it recognizes two realities:

  1. Effective responses for members’ problems occur locally. The discrete, granular circumstances of each member are resolved best, on site, credit union by credit union. No national policy can substitute for the speed and wisdom of local responders.
  2. Nothing of consequence in a crisis can be accomplished alone. When NCUA has taken over credit unions through conservatorship or examiner dictates, this principle of collaboration is nullified. Cooperation and patience are uniquely credit union strengths.

One credit union veteran described effectiveness this way: “Government is too far away and too late to help one’s neighbor. Right now, it is our neighbor to neighbor approaches that auditors, regulators, and bureaucrats need to template. This is what makes future government responses relevant, or even come close to working. We, the citizens and community actors, must be the template for the approaches we hope to have and live with from government .”

The Second Response, Also Instinctive

The other extreme of “we’re all in this together” is the inevitable bureaucratic reach for more power and money. This has resulted in two legislative suggestions by board members at opposite ends of the ideological spectrum: Harper and McWatters.

Both endorsed new NCUA authority to examine third party vendors, a request rejected repeatedly over the past decade in Congress.

The second was to expand the cooperative system’s CLF liquidity options. Although unclear, the suggestion appears to be that liquidity should be on call, solely at NCUA’s behest. The current mixed ownership structure requires credit unions to subscribe capital shares to create the 16 times borrowing capacity at the Federal Financing Bank. Now, credit unions are the direct funders, agents and users of the system.

Contrary Crisis Response

The go-it-alone, we’re in charge approach, was disastrous in the Great Recession. NCUA’s unilateral actions destroyed the CLF’s three-decades long role as the cooperative system’s liquidity safety net. NCUA requested a special $6 billion borrowing line from Congress at same time the CLF had an unused $49 billion capacity.

In the 2009 crisis NCUA took over the daily management of $100 billion dollars in corporate assets without a plan or knowledgeable leadership. Today the $6 billion AME surplus from the liquidations of five corporates, shows the catastrophic misjudgment which NCUA estimated would cost credit unions $13-16 billion dollars.

The misjudgment was not just a dollar and cents forecasting error. Rather the fundamental mistake was that NCUA took over total control. They failed to work collaboratively and respect the expertise and experience in the corporate system. Instead NCUA bought plans from outsiders who failed to understand both cooperative strengths and the crisis itself.

Chairman Hood’s Silence

One reason for Chairman Hood’s silence may be he recalls his past tenure on the NCUA board. And he has reflected on the lessons from that time.

The beauty of the cooperative model is when consumers and leaders believe they can be owners of solutions and get to it. In any crisis we must use that spirit to be first to respond, solid in our belief we can overcome, and hopeful in the fact that things that work will be documented as historical markers for future actions.

Leadership in a crisis offers the chance to build a better system. This occurred in the 1980-1984 transition to deregulation. For that outcome to occur, the NCUA board must work collaboratively with those who man the front lines with members.

Dual Pandemics

About this Cartoon

On Monday I showed a Norman Rockwell inspired illustration We Can Do It from the Vermont News Guide.

I contacted the artist, Noah Regan, to ask if he might create images that show credit unions’ unique roles during this pandemic crisis.

He said yes. Believing that a picture is worth at least a thousand words,  we intend to bring you periodic illustrations capturing the themes of the times we are going through.

Noah is accomplished in many different artistic genres: cartoons, portraits, illustrations and graphics. He lives in Iowa and is a member of Veridian Credit Union. His interests outside of art include cycling, listening to podcasts and audiobooks, writing in the third person, and discovering music (both old and new) on Spotify. More of Noah’s work can be found at ArtHouse Illustrations: https://www.arthouseill.com/about

We are seeking photos of credit unions doing the right things for members to inform Noah’s compositions.  Please email your ideas to me.

Art for Our Time

A combination of Norman Rockwell and Rosie the Riveter.

Illustration by Noah Regan and Joshua Sherman as it appeared in the Vermont News Guide (vtnewsguide.com)

(C) Joshua Sherman Productions, LLC.  2020.  All Rights Reserved.

For the story behind this illustration, the business pivot of Vermont Glove to making medical masks, click:  https://vermontnews-guide.com/recent-emails/