Withdrawing from the Game

While the administration’s trade policy may have only an indirect impact on credit union fortunes, it is an example of how public policy can become sideways with America’s long term interests.  And our standing with the rest of the world.

What follows is a brief critique of the underlying assumptions about tariffs and how the rest of the world will react.  The analyst’s point is that poor policy assumptions lead to poor policy outcomes.

Policy is one aspect of the NCUA board’s role. The board no longer exists.  Future meetings have been cancelled and/or called tentative.

The board’s statutory role is to manage the agency.  That also is on hold.

The consequences of these absences of regulatory oversight will not be known for a while.  Meantime some credit unions will take the opportunity to push the envelope on corporate interests.

There will be fallout from this regulatory abdication on policy and agency leadership.  Like the trade example below, the market won’t wait to fill the current vacuum in supervision.

The Challenge of False Policy Assumptions

The following summary of US trade strategy is by William Reinsch at the Center for Strategic and International Studies *CSIS).

Even while uncertainty persists, not only about Trump’s intentions, but also about the half-life of his policies, his actions are being treated as the death knell for the global economy. Trump’s message to the world is that the United States is no longer a reliable partner. The obvious corollary is to find other partners, and that is just what others are doing—with the United States on the sidelines.

 

What is noteworthy is that it appears we are still making progress—in the same way and in the same direction as always. The difference is that the United States is not there; not under Biden and not under Trump. It is typical of Americans to think that we are leading —whatever we are doing is heading down the right path, with other countries running behind to catch up. In this case, however, it appears no one is following.
The new negotiations tell me that the announcement of the old order’s death was greatly exaggerated, and that the case for trade liberalization remains a strong one. Since the current administration is not going to change its worldview, the challenge for U.S. companies is to find ways to stay in the game even as our government has withdrawn from it.

 

The Question Is . . .

I watched CNN’s ive Saturday broadcast of the New York play Good Night, Good Luck. It portrays CBS’s Edward R. Murrow’s challenge to Senataor Joe McCarthy’s political attacks using anti-communist rhetoric.

Set in the early 1950’s the play recreates an era of political name calling not dissimilar to today’s dscourse.

There is a six-minute final address in front of the curtain by George Clooney who plays Murrow.  The words are from an actual Murrow broadcast.

It begins questionning whether corporate-owned media(TV is dominant) will support critical discussions  in an era of entertainment driven broadcast popularity.

The middle of the “talk” is a collage of quick frames of news clips from the past 70 years interspersed with popular TV shows.

The close is Murrow’s question–not what will politicians do, but rather what are we the people prepared to do?

Here is the final speech from the CNN broadcast.  The message is more urgent than ever for our lives, our work places and our country.

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hU9bWiazGM)

Larry Connell, NCUA’s First Chairman, Dies

Larry Connell, appointed by President Carter as the first NCUA Board Chairman in 1977, died this past week in New Hampshire.

After graduating from Harvard in 1958 with a BA degree in economics, Connell worked for the Comptroller’s office(OCC) in ban k regulation. During this time he earned his JD degree from Georgetown University.

Connecticut Governor Ella Grasso appointed Connell as Bank Commissioner in 1975.   In that office he supervised commercial and savings banks, credit unions, and loan companies as well as acting as securities commissioner.

The Credit Union Years

President Jimmy Carter’s appointment of Connell as Chairman of the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) came at a pivotal time for both credit unions and federal financial regulation.  Congressional legislation converted the NCUA from a single person administrator to an independent federal agency with a three person, Presidentially appointed board.

The same legislation established the Central Liquidity Facility (CLF) within the NCUA.  This was the cooperative system’s public-private partnership establishing lender of “unfailing reliability.”  At that time credit unions did not have access to the national clearing system or to the Federal Reserve

The first NCUA full board included PA Mack, a senior advisor for Senator Birch Bayh,  and Dr. Harold Black an associate professor of finance at the University of North Carolina’s School of Business Administration.

The First NCUA Board in 1979

As NCUA chair Connell was also a member of the Depository Institutions Deregulation Committee (DIDC) which was charged with the deregulation of rates and terms on the savings accounts of all federally insured deposits.  He was Chairman of the new congressionally chartered National Consumer Cooperative Bank (NCB) until his departure from NCUA in early 1982.

In March 1979 Congress established the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) to bring consistency to multiple regulators’ oversight of rules and call reports.  Connell was vice chair.  That same year he asked if I would serve as the state representative for credit unions.  The term was for two years and included periodic visits to Washington for state liaison meetings.  The primary discussions were about the wording for the new Truth in Lending and Truth in Savings rules.

A Career in Public – Private Banking Oversight

After leaving NCUA, Larry became President/CEO of the $2.5 billion Washington Mutual Savings Bank in Seattle.   This began a peripatetic 12-year career in bank crisis management as CEO or Director for banks and S&L’s across the country from Washington, Texas, New Hampshire, Maine, Illinois, Michigan and Washington DC.

After his work for domestic inistitutions Connell was deployed as Senior Advisor for the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Technical Assistance.  In this role he  advised governments on bank privatization policies and practices in eastern and central Europe, as well as in Russia, Turkey, Colombia, South East Asia and Africa.

At the Founding and the Transition

October 1981 welcome reception for Ed Callahan with P.A. Mack and Larry Connell

Larry was at the founding of the NCUA as the agency transformed to an independent board.  At his departure his successor, Ed Callahan, spoke of his vital contribution:

While Larry Connell’s departure will be a major loss to NCUA and to the credit union movement, his visionary ideas will continue to influence the financial community. Larry’s expertise in so many areas–economics, law and banking–helped to elevate the stature of NCUA during one of the watershed periods in American financial history.

An ever expanding group of people—from government, industry and the media—now actively seek the Agency’s views on a variety of economic and financial matters, not  just credit union affairs.  I can’t pay him a higher compliment. (The NCUA Review February 1982, page 1)

However Larry did continue serving credit unions.  He was an original trustee of the TCU family of Mutual Funds launched in 1988 by Callahan & Associates.

Larry  laid the foundation for responsive, experienced, and professional NCUA leadership. He believed in credit unions as a vital alternative for individuals and communities left behind by the for-profit sector.  He was a friend, a colleague and always open for intelligent conversation.

The NCUA Board’s leadership and support of credit unions.

Musical Moments of America at Its Best

For the anniversary of D-Day. Written in 1942 by Irving Berlin, I Paid my Income Tax Today supported the country’s income tax collection efforts during World War II.

The rights  are stilll owned by the Internal Revenue Service which distributed the song widely on its publication.

Proclaiming the patriotic virtues of paying taxes, this zippy little tune makes being “squared up with the USA” sound positively delightful. Clearly, the  national dialogue surrounding taxes, especially in  credit unions, has gone in a different direction.

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIT3xnYbmzQ&t=8s)

America’s Rising Generation at its  Best

The Lion Sleeps Tonight (Wimoweh)

To spark your day. The Young People’s Chorus of New York City sing at the Lincoln Center in 2021. These  are the future of the country.  Feel the joy and see the promise. I love the conductor’s enthusiasm.

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erCq44KSEHQ)

An Encore

How Can I keep from Singing

Performed at the 16th Annual Anabaptist Choral Festival 2023 of Shenandoah Christian Music Camp (VA).  

The choir covers their faces to represent the text which speaks of darkness closing in around us: “What though the tempest loudly roars, I hear the truth, it liveth! What though the darkness ’round me close, Songs in the night it giveth.”

And the words of hope: I hear tne bells of freedom ringing; how can I keep from singing? 

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cw-ycev482k&t=9s)

Should Credit Unions Facilitate the Purchase of Crypto Currencies?

A number of credit unions already partner with crypto exchanges enabling members to purchase and store crypto.  More are considering the service. The fees can be attractive with apparently little risk.

But should this be a credit union endorsed activity? That is a question that arises in other contexts. For example other activities some might perceive as outside core purpose include  supporting state authorized cannabis banking,  interval vacation home ownership or various forms of legal betting.

Crypto issuance and lighter regulation are a priority for the Trump administration and for his family’s personal investing.

Yesterday substack columnist Jared Brock published his analysis of the pros and cons of  crypto currencies.  Following are excerpts from the article.

Can Bitcoin Save Us?

One model of currency creation is to let everyone privately create money and let the market decide.

This is where Bitcoin comes in.

Cryptocurrencies are pseudo-money built on a blockchain, which is a trustless, decentralized, encrypted digital spreadsheet.

Anyone can privately create one.

And boy, do they.

As of this morning, there are over 16,560,000 cryptocurrencies and tokens, with 57,335 new ones coming online just yesterday.

Nearly 100% of these are straight-up scams.

Allowed unbridled private money creation has all sorts of challenges:

  1. Obviously, it leads to a proliferation of fraud. Why would we want to put our young people, old people, unintelligent people, and vulnerable people at further risk of exploitation? . . .
  2. Market instability. It’s hard for people and businesses to plan and budget effectively when there are millions of currencies all whipsawing in price.
  3. Inequality. Rich people and rich corporations have more resources to create and promote their currencies, even if they’re inferior products. This further concentrates economic power and grows economic inequality.
  4. Transaction costs. Mastercard, Visa, Stripe, and the rest of the payments processing ilk already rob a huge percentage of our money, not unlike the moneychangers that Jesus drove out of the temple. With tens of millions of currencies in circulation, virtually every purchase would require several currency exchanges.
  5. Monetary policy. When all money is created privately, democracies lose the ability to direct the economy toward national goals and objectives like ending poverty.
  6. Currency wars. When there are millions of currencies fighting for customers, it incentivizes all of them to undermine and devalue their competitors to gain an advantage.

You don’t have to believe me.

You can just look at history.

America used to do private money creation.

At one point, nearly every city in America had its own city bank that issued its own currency.

Each value of each bank’s money was based on its reputation and financial stability.

It was the Wild West, and it led to endless bank runs, millions of bankruptcies, untold suicides, and the creation of the fraudulent, quasi-government (but actually private) money monster called the Federal Reserve.

Can you hear the Bitcoiners howling?

“Yeah, but Bitcoin has a limited supply!”

Right.

Bitcoiners have an autistic obsession with the fact that Bitcoin has a limited supply.

“Only” 2.1 quadrillion satoshis will ever exist.

My note: this is where I do not understand Brock’s logic.  This is the stated limit for bitcoin creation- 21 million. Is he speculating about infinite computer creation?)

How very impressive.

That’s 2,100 trillion.

That’s 2.1 million billions.

That’s 2.1 billion millions.

That’s more than 10 times all the money currently in existence.

So let me get this straight — you hate U.S. bankers for creating $21.86 trillion out of thin air… but you’re okay when someone else creates 96Xs more money out of thin air? Are you demented?

Bitcoiners insist they’re different, but it’s actually just more of the same — economic injustice and exploitation for all. . .

And what are all these Bitcoiners doing with all their hoarded Bitcoin?

They’re just hoarding it.

They’re lending it out on decentralized finance platforms for interest.

Millions of Bitcoiners have zero plans to ever sell or spend a single Bitcoin. The plan is to lock it in digital vaults as a reserve currency, then create digital Bitcoin-backed tokens that they can lend at interest.

In other words, they want to be the new central banksters, the new monopolistic overlords of finance who decide who gains access to money and who gets shut out. . .That’s the problem with all these Bitcoin-worshippers.

They still love money; they just call it by a different name. . .

Conclusion

Obviously, everything has costs and benefits.

I’m not against Bitcoin. . .

I’m against monopolization. I’m for sharing.

And frankly, millions of Bitcoiners are far-right libertarian rules-free-market hyper-individualist sociopaths. I wouldn’t want to be forced into using a single currency on their terms any more than on central bankster terms. . .

Thus, why I prefer sovereign money — democratic, accountable, safeguarded, fair, just, non-exploitative, accessible, nation-building currency.

I want honest money.

What do you think?  Is this a valid analysis for credit union’s contemplating facilitating crypto purchases?

 

The End of Very Low Rates?

As the US economy  continues to react to various Trump fiscal initiatives,  some still hope interest rates will fall to the levels of the first Trump era.

That extremely low interest rate period, begun in response to the financial problems of 2008/9, was itself unique.  This analysis from yesterday’s Marketplace’s Daily Wrap suggests why that may not occur again.

As the GOP spending bill winds its way through Congress, the trajectory of U.S. federal debt, now 100% of GDP , is in the balance. What Congress and the president do with the finances of the U.S. government will seep out into the rest of the economy. Specifically, if the government must borrow a lot more, it affects the cost of borrowing for pretty much everyone else.

Recall the period before the pandemic when interest rates were super low. Where people were “borrowing money at 3 and 4% for commercial real estate transactions or a house,” said Alice Frazier, president of the 154-year-old Bank of Charlestown in West Virginia. “The low interest rate period was not a normal period.”

It was a dream, and we’ve woken up from it.

Rates were low back then for many reasons. Inflation was not an issue. Also, after the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve started keeping short-term rates low and working hard to push long-term rates down. And investors around the world were traumatized by the crisis and particularly interested in safe assets, accepting low rates for that purpose.

All of that has now changed. Inflation awoke, the Fed raised rates and, over time, international investors were less accepting of lower yields. . .

Would-be homeowners started to think twice about that mortgage. “And on the business side there were investments, but our borrowers were much more measured, and this is operating type companies — landscapers or manufacturers,” sai d Frazier.

This is generally what happens when interest rates in the economy go up.

“Everything that the firm or the private sector would contemplate doing gets a little bit harder to do,” said Jesse Schreger, an associate professor at Columbia Business School.

Higher rates haven’t been fun, especially if you’re a buyer trying to get a mortgage, a startup trying to lure investors, or a struggling restaurant chain trying to stay afloat. But so far, the economy as a whole has been strong and able to handle it. . .

“If you take a look, for instance, at consumers, at households, you know, we think they’re in a very sustainable place. Balance sheets are relatively healthy. The use of credit and leverage does not appear unsustainable,” said Josh Hirt, a senior U.S. economist at Vanguard. . .

But the question right now is whether borrowing costs across the economy, after going up a notch since the start of the pandemic, are going to go up another, perhaps more unpleasant notch — and not just for the private sector.

“I think that really is gonna come down to the key question: how are we going to manage our fiscal situation in the U.S.,” Hirt said.

 

Solid Anchor: Pictures and Memories from Vietnam

          A recollection on Memorial Day

The Vietnam War was a divisive period in American society.  Duty called people in many, often differing diections.

The pictures below are of Solid Anchor a combined Vietnamese US Navy base on the Cua Lon river at the very tip of the Ca Mau penisula.  This stage of the war was relatively quiet.  The Seal team’s primary role was to gather information about threats from Viet Cong or North Vietnamese presence in the area. These pictures are from January and February 1971.

Leaving the USS Windham County (LST 1170) to go to Solid Anchor.

Passing an Island on the way

Large swaths of vegetation and lowlands destroyed by agent orange spraying.

The river front at the base dredged from the  lowland.  The river patrol boats at the dock.

The water front, an  artificial peer from sand filled 40 gallon drums.

A patrol boat disabled by a mine.

VIew from a base watch tower, manned 24 hours.

Joint command flags. Base main office with chow hall and for paying troops with military pay certificates (MPC) not dollars.

The Seal team’s hooch, Happiness is . . .  The boy with snake had found a Viet Cong cache of 200 grenades.

Sunset at helo pad with two gunships always ready to lift off at the first sign of trouble.

Dawn on helo pad.

Day after some incoming. Bunkers and metal for airstrip. (January 9, 1971)

At setting sun down main street.

Heading to Saigon with another huey close by to return all left over MPC which was being replaced with a new issue.

A straight canal on way to Saigon.

A Coast Guard ship  deployed  with our LST.

Heading to homeport after being gone for over six months.

Waiting for dads’ return atYokosuka Naval Base, Japan.  Lara in yellow rain coat and Alix on the way.