Category: NCUA

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Government and Investment Portfolio Management

In a Marketplace analysis yesterday, the daily financial update reported how the Federal Reserve’s management of its multi-trillion dollar portfolio can reduce or increase the government’s overall operating deficit.

As reported, for the last 15 years the Fed’s been making about $100 billion a year a profit sent right to the Treasury which, as revenue, reduces the federal deficit.

The “profit” comes from the net spread between what the Fed earns on the trillions of  bonds and mortgage-backed securities that it began purchasing during the financial crisis of 2008 under the policy of “quantitative easing.”

This macro economic policy continued and expanded during the Covid shutdown.   The cost to carry these interest earning assets in the Covid era was near zero.  The majority of funding was from the excess reserves banks kept with the Fed which was paying less than 1%.

Today that spread is upside down as the cost of funds has risen to nearly 5.5% on overnights.  Rates on the portfolio are mostly fixed and at much lower yields as securities were purchased in a much different part of the interest rate cycle. Interest expense is now greater than interest income with the result that “the Fed has lost on the order of $100 billion since last fall,”

Here are the Fed’s total balance sheet holdings as of October 18, 2023 showing almost $8 trillion in total assets.  Tables show that the majority of assets have maturities beyond ten years.

When the Fed has a loss, it files the loss away until it can pay it back once it’s making a profit again. This year’s “loss” will equal about 5% of the total government deficit.  So instead of lowering the shortfall as in prior years, it adds to it.

The NCUSIF Analogy

The largest asset managed by the NCUA is the NCUSIF’s $22 billion investment portfolio.  As of August 30, $4 billion was invested overnight with a yield of 5.4%.  The remaining $18 billion was invested in maturities as long as seven years with a combined yield of 1.4%.

At month end the portfolio’s market value was $1.5 billion less than book.  As short term investments become a greater portion of the total, the duration has declined slightly to 2.64 years.  This is the approximate time that it would take the cash flows from the maturing investments to be at  market–should the current yield environment become the new “normal.”

If the NCUSIF’s portfolio yield were 5% or greater, the fund’s total revenue would exceed $1 billion. This would result in dividends to the fund’s credit union owners. When the portfolio is below market for an extended period this shortfall comes out of credit unions’ pockets.

Time for Credit Unions to Be Alert

It will be critical for credit unions to monitor the monthly updates of the fund. The Agency’s upcoming investment decisions are critical. Its interest rate risk management and duration will  have a critical impact on the Fund’s future.  This includes total revenue, its financial soundness and credit unions’ bottom lines.

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A Credit Union’s Calling: Be “Stewards of Humanity”

Everything in life comes around, full circle, even in credit unions.

“In 1908, Monsignor Pierre Hevey, Pastor of Sainte-Marie’s parish in Manchester, New Hampshire, organized what was soon to be known as the first credit union. The goal was to help the primarily Franco-American mill workers save and borrow money.

“On November 24, 1908  in Manchester, New Hampshire  “La Caisse Populaire, Ste-Marie” (The People’s Bank)  became the first credit union in the nation.”  (from Our Story, St. Mary’s Bank)

Today the Bishops and priests of the Episcopal Diocese of New York are following in Monsignor Hevey’s footsteps.   And for many of the same reasons, as demonstrated in these founders’ statements:

“As a diocese, we are committed to making a meaningful impact on the lives of those who have traditionally been marginalized and underserved. That’s why the establishment and launch of our diocesan credit union is such a pivotal moment for us.

“It’s not just about providing financial services, it’s about creating an inclusive space where everyone, irrespective of their financial standing, can feel valued and supported. . .

“These initiatives are more than just programs or ideas, they are a call to action, a call to embody the love and grace of God in the world.”

A second organizer:

“As a member of the inaugural board of trustees and co-chair of the Diocese’s credit union task force, I am thrilled to see the New York Episcopal Federal Credit Union open its headquarters and first branch here in the Bronx. It’s a testament to our commitment to the local community and our mission to serve everyone in our field of membership, regardless of their financial circumstances.

The existing banking system often neglects the needs of those who are underserved and overlooked, and that’s why we’re excited to offer a financial institution that prioritizes the well-being of all its members. We look forward to empowering our neighbors in Fordham and throughout the Bronx, as well as the entire Diocese of New York, with the tools and resources they need to achieve financial stability and thrive.”

The biblical calling to be “stewards of humanity” was featured in this short recording by the Diocese announcing the credit union’s formation.

In the June 30, 2023 call report, the credit union reported $477,000 in total assets, all in investments, and a net worth of the same amount.

A Long Journey

Here are some details of the charter journey from an Episcopal  News Service May 23rd story:

“The journey towards establishing the NYEFCU began in 1990 when the Diocese of New York committed 10% of donations to its endowment funds to economic justice efforts and created a task force to recommend projects. Despite initial discussions and resolutions in 2003 and 2004, the credit union’s development was slow.

“It wasn’t until 2014 when the diocesan convention voted to “authorize the establishment of a task force to prepare a charter and solicit initial grants and deposits to establish the Episcopal Diocese of New York Credit Union.”

The Diocese embraces a lively community of faith, fellowship, service and spiritual commitment across almost 200 congregations and 50,000 members.

“The task force submitted an application for a federal charter to the National Credit Union Administration in December 2020, and spent 2021 and 2022 addressing the federal agency’s requests for more information and revisions before finally receiving approval.

“The credit union was launched with an initial investment of $500,000, with $250,000 from the diocese and another $250,000 from Trinity Church Wall Street. An ongoing fundraising drive aims to secure an additional $300,000 to cover the first five years of operating expenses, including staffing, office supplies, and computer technology. After this period, NYEFCU aims to have enough members to sustain itself without further external funding.

“The first branch of the NYEFCU is located next to St. James, Fordham in a new mixed-use development (St. James Terrace) that will house 102 affordable apartments, half of which are allocated for formerly homeless individuals. In its inaugural year, the credit union aims to cater to the specific financial needs of its low- to moderate-income members by offering an array of services.”

Credit Unions’ Future as Credit Unions

No matter the size of America’s collective consumer wealth,  many still have limited access to fair financial options.  These are often the targets of for-profit financial offerings.

It’s no accident that people of faith have played a major role in the establishment of coops as a way to serve their congregations.   They remind all of the values animating credit union pioneers.  And the values that make cooperatives more than “nice banks.”

The fact that this charter application and processing will take from 2020 (when submitted) until the end of this year to raise sufficient capital,  shows the perseverance required overcoming government bureaucracy.

These spiritual founders are responding to the call to serve by creating a financial cooperative.

The major difference is that the Diocese had one hurdle that Monsignor Hevey did not have to deal with, the NCUA.  It just shows it helps to  have God on one’s side.

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Once . . .

Yesterday the North Carolina Credit Union Commission met to discuss a member’s complaint that SECU’s recent bylaw change proscribed members’ rights.  I noted three outcomes.

  1. The chair recused under the ethics rules as he is an employee of SECU.
  2. SECU was approached about voluntarily deferring its bylaw changes until after today’s annual meeting, but declined.
  3. A Commission subcommittee was formed to review the process for bylaw changes and make recommendations as soon as practical.

The Commission’s role in this oversight has not ended. The bylaw issue will continue on its agenda.

Today at 1:00pm SECU’s Annual meeting will be held. A link for the virtual broadcast will be published on its website.  The voting outcome for directors will be announced.

This Annual Meeting will be a seminal event no matter the result. For once members have been brought into the process,  it will be hard to shut them out in the future.

Once . . .Is Today

Once to every man and nation
Comes the moment to decide,
In the strife of truth with falsehood,
For the good or evil side;
Some great cause, God’s new Messiah,
Offering each the bloom or blight,
And the choice goes by forever
Twixt that darkness and that light.

Then to side with truth is noble,
When we share her wretched crust,
Ere her cause bring fame and profit,
And ’tis prosperous to be just;
Then it is the brave man chooses
While the coward stands aside,
Till the multitude make virtue
Of the faith they had denied. . .

The Members’ Voice

Once empowered, the members’ voice is hard to still.   In a democracy people will act when they see their self interest in jeopardy.

Member rights have not been a priority across the credit union system.  Federal and state regulators have been absent and at times, negligent, when overseeing this aspect of their responsibility.

Democratic governance is a vital factor in the credit union model.  Legal equality in governance was deemed to be a precursor for economic equality.

Democratic voting is more than an organizational design.  The one-person-one-vote is a core value.   For decades credit unions have struggled to tie their cooperative moral laces.

Today as recited in James Russell Lowell’s poem above, may be a reawakening of that effort for SECU and the cooperative system.

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Are Credit Unions  Moving Beyond NCUA ?

In yesterday’s post on the recent borrowing trends in credit unions, every lender had stepped up to meet the 300%, $90  billion increase in external funding since June  of 2022.  Except one.

While the FHLB system and Fed  Reserve were the dominate providers, all sources from corporates (102%), to  sub debt (24%)  and even  other credit unions  (3,800%) increased their outstanding loans.

The only credit union provider that showed no borrowings was the credit union funded Central Liquidity Facility.   The last  CLF loan origination was in 2009.

CLF’s August 2023 Financial Condition

At August 31, 2023, the  CLF  Financial Statement reports  assets of $875million all invested in US Treasuries.  This was funded by $800 million from 390  credit unions’ capital stock purchases and another $17 million in deposits.  There were no corporate agent members. Retained earnings were $40.4 million.

Year-to-date operating expenses  are $1.3  million, up 86% from the prior year. Dividends on the credit union capital shares are paid quarterly.  The posted rates  would appear to trail the overnight Fed funds return by about 50 basis points.

The Facility’s borrowing authority-lending capacity was $19.7 billion.   And there were no loans.

Why Is There No CLF Lending?

The facility’s funding authority is large enough to  meet significant loan demand.   Its lending parameters mirror those of the Federal Reserve  which  had $30 billion outstanding to credit unions  at June 2023.   Moreover $20 billion of this total was advanced in the June quarter in the aftermath of  market uncertainty due to multiple banking failures.

How are all these other sources growing their portfolios  but the public-private  CLF partnership has no activity?

I have seen no effort by the CLF to promote its services to its own members.   It would be helpful to analyze how many of these 390 CLF shareholders had borrowings elsewhere.  However NCUA will not release the  members’ names so no one can check this possibility.

CLF the Missing  Player

The primary reference to the CLF by the three NCUA board members has been to urge congress to reinstate the special lending/agent membership options passed during the pandemic which expired at the end of 2022.

However today, the CLF lacks neither financial resources nor authority to offer loans that could meet member needs now–as all other lending institutions are  doing.   That is how these firms, public or private survive.

One might  speculate about why there is no CLF effort.   Does it have the operational capability and professional  skills to make loans?   For example, can credit unions even preposition collateral?

In prior lending activity the CLF  partnered with the corporate network which did the underwriting  and disbursements but drew on CLF funding. This operational  capability was lost when the NCUA ended this option by closing U. S. Central.

The  last CLF loans were $5 million each to the conserved WesCorp  and US Central in 2009.

Those two loans were an extension of the NCUSIF’s support.    No other corporates were offered CLF loans even though several had similar exposures to  underwater securities.

In  short, the  CLF  loans were just an extension of NCUA’s supervisory actions, not a liquidity lifeline .

My Thought on Why the  CLF is no Longer Relevant

In addition to its operational incapacity,  I believe credit unions have realized that, unlike other options, the CLF is not an actual  public-private partnership.   Its lending response  is at the whim of NCUA supervisory priorities, not credit union need.

Credit unions do not view the CLF as a reliable partner in times of balance sheet stress.

Therefore, they have moved beyond the CLF for the more proven reliabilities from the multiple options now available–both debt and subdebt.

In short,  credit unions  no longer need the CLF.  They have plenty of tested alternatives.  Ones that don’t impose supervisory judgments on top of collateral values.

For credit unions the CLF is a vestigial  organ, still within the body but not serving any system purpose.   It  continues tp accumulate  retained earnings but has no balance sheet risk.   The income  pays an increasing expense load (up 86% so far in 2023) even with no operational activity.   The regular members shares are subsidizing the  facility  which pays  a  below market quarterly dividend.

The challenges are not a lack  of institutional or member need— just look at the expanding FHLB lending programs.   Rather the challenge is leadership.

This  is  not a situation requiring  a congressional legislative fix.   What’s missing is NCUA’s ability to partner with the members who fund the CLF and develop collaborative solutions to  benefit the cooperative system and their members.

It’s  been done before.   It is being done now by multiple organizations and firms (see examples below).   Credit unions have seen these more reliable options and have decided to move on from an impotent NCUA-CLF.

This situation also raises  a broader issue than the future of the CLF. When might this liquidity experience cause some credit unions  to consider moving even further away from the coop system  altogether.

NOTE: Examples of Proactive Efforts to Serve Credit Union’s Current Liquidity Needs

The following are  examples of  lenders and institutions with outreach to credit unions in this critical liquidity period in 2023.

First,  is the announcement of the  Federal Reserves’ new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12, 2023 for which credit unions were eligible.

The following is from from a  promotion highlighting CD  options:

Inclusiv/Capital and Primary Financial will host a webinar to discuss deposit strategies and resources to support your credit union’s impact lending and liquidity management strategies.

Primary Financial is a credit union service organization (CUSO) owned jointly by 10 corporate credit unions nationwide. This unique ownership structure gives Primary Financial potential relationships  with credit unions across America.

Examples of FHLB special programs and assistance are in numerous press stories:

Ken Bauer, EVP & CLO, OneAZ Credit Union:

“Particularly in Arizona, more of a person’s monthly wages are going to housing than ever before,” Bauer says. “We asked ourselves how we could help members navigate this market and bridge that gap to homeownership.”

To provide members with down payment assistance, the credit union is working with two grant programs offered through the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB).

In  Wisconsin:

Summit Credit Union of Madison, Wis. ($6.6 billion in assets, 248,245 members as of June 30) announced Thursday that it was able to help 70 borrowers through the $700,000 in grants it was provided this year by the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago. Buyers must earn no more than 80% of the area’s median income.

The grants reduce down payments, closing costs or pre-paid expenses by $10,000 for each of the 70 borrowers who benefitted from January to August 2023.

This is  Ryan  Donovan President and Chief Executive Officer, Council of Federal Home Loan Bank promoting the system’s “private-public” partnerships:

The Federal Home Loan Bank system is a terrific example of a private-public partnership that works, providing tremendous benefit to #homebuyers. Through our members and their activity, we help save homebuyers more than $13 billion each year in interest payments; we facilitate an additional 16% of #mortgage originations; we help make the 30-year fixed rate mortgage an opportunity for many homebuyers; we support community financial institutions across the country; and, we’re one of the largest private-sector contributors to affordable housing efforts.

One can also list numerous financial consultants, ALM  advisory firms,  and brokers seeking to assist credit union liquidity needs, for a fee.  But there is no CLF outreach.

 

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Important New Data from NCUA’s Recent Board Meeting

In anticipation of the NCUSIF update at last week’s board meeting I described several topics of vital importance. These included the fund’s operating stability, the investment lag from market rates, the loss reserving level and the reliability of projections of future performance.

In answering Board member Hood’s questions, there was important new data from staff.

The Fund’s Normal Operating Level is Stable and Growing

As in any enterprise with a bottom line, NCUA’s outcome is to optimize the fund’s retained earnings. Adding the 1% required credit union deposits, these two factors sustain a stable Normal Operating level.  CFO Schied responded that the actual level of the NOL ratio at June 2023 would be 1.29% if the retained earnings and required 1% trueup were recorded in the same accounting period.

Staff’s NOL projection in May had been for a 1.25% at June. This 4 basis point projection materially understated the Fund’s trends and financial stability.

Moreover, we learned that using a six month old data point to calculate the 1% trueup, overstated the reported December 2022 actual ratio.  There had been a $5 billion decline in total savings in the last half of 2022.  That resulted in  $72 million net returns of the 1% deposits from June’s 2022 total. Using this six-month old 1% datapoint resulted in a higher NOL number than if all three ratio factors were from the same accounting period.

The Fund’s Loss Reserve Equals Four Times Its Recent Loss Rate

CFO Schied reported net cash losses in the fund since the taxi medallion write offs, were just .31 basis points of insured shares.   The current loss provision ($204 million) is 3.8 times this recent experience and equals 1.2% of insured savings.

The actual net cash loss for the first six months of 2023 is only $1 million. However,  over $20 million has been added to the provision expense.  When asked why this difference, Schied replied:  “The general reserve is derived using an internal econometric model that applies estimated probability of failure and loss rates.” 

No details of this model were provided to evaluate  assumptions and whether they were validated by actual experience. This is critical detail for users to have confidence in the financial estimates provided.

The loss provision expense comes directly from retained earnings.  The current level reduces the reported NOL level  by over 1 basis point of insured savings.

The NCUSIF’s Below Market Valuation

Current short-term rates under two years are yielding over 5%.   The NCUSIF’s portfolio has a YTD yield of 1.79%.  This was due to the Fund’s continual investing out to seven years when rates were near zero.  The result was a weighted average maturity for the portfolio of almost three years.  That is the time it will take to bring the portfolio back to par once rates normalize.

The market value of the portfolio went negative in December 2021 and was $1.5 billion below book at June, 2023.   This results in revenue far below current yields.   Investment revenue is the primary driver of retained earnings.  This is the most critical management responsibility in the NCUSIF’s financial performance.

When asked about the status of the investment committee’s  policy review begun early in 2022 Schied’s response: The investment policy has not been updated.  The investment committee has identified a few modest updates and clarification, and is still considering one item.  So again, at this point the policy that is on our website remains the current investment policy.

Is there a more important priority for the board than to understand the reasons for the recent underperformance?  And then to update the NCUSIF’s interest rate risk management policy/practice to avoid this outcome in the future?

The Accuracy of Staff Projections

The June forecast for the NCUSIF’s NOL was 1.25% provided to the  board in late May.  The actual outcome was 4 basis points higher at 1.29%.

The staff gave an updated NOL projection for this December of 1.27%.   Projecting the Fund’s actual numbers at June, this would be a gain of $70 million in net income, or lower than the first six month’s bottom line.  The 12-month growth in insured shares was forecast at 4.2%.   The real growth for the first half of the year was 1.8% from the previous June.  In 2022 last two quarters there was a net outflow of $5 billion.

There was no information to support these assumptions and the NOL of 1.27.   If  share growth is zero from June, and the same net income estimate, the retained earnings ratio would rise to .2948 at yearend. This would be an increase from the actual .2922 at December ‘22.

As with the econometric model used in the loss provision expense, this NOL forecast cannot be evaluated without the underlying assumptions being transparent.

The Board Meeting Process

The board members’ comments, their Q & A with staff and staff’s responses were all scripted.  Board members read their statements, there was no effort at dialogue, there was no learning from the supposedly differing points of view represented.

Only Hood engaged the staff on what the NCUSIF numbers mean.  Chair Harper followed his ever present “MO” of hyping future risks after acknowledging the fund’s sound condition.  Hauptman talked about how interest rates are set by buyers and sellers of money, but did not apply his observation to the current outlook for rates.  And how this might affect future decisions.

Hood’s questions brought out some very important aspects of the NCUSIF’s management.  New information from Schied included a positive  forecast of $12 million in further recoveries from US Central’s AME.

The Q&A highlighted the shortcoming of current accounting presentations and  investment practices.  These can mislead users of the financials statement.

The Fund’s below market investment performance will cause lower revenue for the fund and its credit union owners by hundreds of millions of dollars.

Moreover the investment position compromises the two primary goals stated for the investment committee’s performance.  These are liquidity (never borrowing to meet the fund’s obligations) and meeting all operating expenses, plus dividend.  These two outcomes should be a walk in the park in current conditions.

If the fund were earning 5% on its portfolio, total revenue would be over $1 billion, a result that would pay real dividends to credit unions for their underwriting commitment.

There is great potential for the cooperative structure of the NCUSIF to be a positive contributor to the credit union system.  It will be up to the board to ensure this outcome is indeed realized.

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People Helping People-A Major Government Agency’s Program

“People Helping People”

No, this is not  NCUA’S  motto.  It is the IRS’s. And it relies on volunteers.

“The Volunteer Income Tax Assistance Program offers free tax help to low- to moderate-income (generally, $60,000 and below) people who cannot prepare their own tax returns. Certified volunteers sponsored by various organizations receive training to help prepare basic tax returns in communities across the country.

“VITA sites are generally located at community and neighborhood centers, libraries, schools, shopping malls, and other convenient locations(such as credit unions). Most locations also offer free electronic filing.”

Free Tax Return Preparation for You by Volunteers

“If you are an individual interested in becoming a volunteer, but need to find an organization in your area to link up with, please submit your contact information using the VITA/TCE Volunteer and Partner Sign Up. Your information will be forwarded to the appropriate local IRS office.

VITA Volunteer Testimonials

“One VITA Site Coordinator had this to say about her VITA site, “I feel comfortable saying all taxpayers using our services were extremely grateful for the patience, expertise and timeliness of volunteers preparing the tax return.

We have many repeat ‘customers’ from year to year and – even during the down months – we are greeted throughout the community with a warm hello and ‘see you at tax time.’ This speaks highly for the good work these gifted volunteers perform.”

A VITA volunteer stated this about her volunteer experience, “VITA helped me acquire more knowledge on my tax benefits. I really love it because you are learning and helping the community at the same time. It’s the best feeling.”

An Example for the Cooperative Regulator

This is the IRS — a government agency which seeks and encourages volunteers to carry out its mission of tax filing and compliance.   The words come right out of the credit union playbook.   I wonder why this spirit is not part of NCUA’s game plan?

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Transparency: A Test for the Cooperative System

“Democracy Dies in Darkness.”

That is the official slogan of The Washington Post, adopted in 2017. The slogan was introduced on the newspaper’s website on February 22, 2017.  The phrase was popularized by investigative journalist Bob Woodward, who used it in a 2007 piece criticizing government secrecy.

Yesterday long-time credit union supporter and reporter Frank Diekmann published an “editorial” on the CU Today web site, Why NCUA Should Require Credit Unions to Disclose What They’re Paying for Banks.

Based on years of covering bank purchases, he critiques the absence of meaningful data in many of these transitions.  No information is provided, such as the purchase price,  that would show how the members collective capital is being used to pay off owners of banks.  Here is some of his logic:

“Why the secrecy?

“It’s quite the hypocritical disconnect for a CU community that defends the federal tax exemption largely on the back of the “structure,” that is that credit unions are democratically run cooperatives where the members are the owners, to then turn around and say certain information belongs to some but not others (never a good sign in a democracy) and that some cooperators are more equal than others. . .

“There is another big, CU-principal-grounded reason for letting members know how much of their money is being spent and for what, and it’s a real ironic kicker: if the acquiring credit union were a publicly traded bank buying up another bank, it would be required to disclose the purchase price, and analysts/customers/the market would have the opportunity to put the ROI under the microscope. . .

“And then there is this other “let’s not go there” issue. But I say, let’s do. While this may not be the primary reason for buying a bank, it’s also not an innocent bystander: CEOs who have language in their contracts tying their compensation to asset size are getting raises out of these deals. Members have a right to know about that, especially since—again—it’s their money being used to goose the comp.

“It’s time to dispense with the rosy sounding but generic banality and to specifically document how members of the acquiring credit union benefit, and how the former customers are better off, with some real dollar figures around the savings on loans and fees and the increased rates on deposits. You know, how much more is going into people’s pockets?”

Transparency Is the Lifeblood of Democracy

Frank’s concern about credit union’s secrecy extends far beyond bank purchases.  Boards and CEO’s have grown used  to not disclosing or even explaining anything to members especially around their leadership roles and activities.

Credit unions want to retain their “private” character, but to act unfettered in the public market place.  CEO and board salaries are  not required to be disclosed by federal charters.  For states the information is supposed to be provided in the 990 filing, but it is often late, after the major participants have left and not reviewed by any authority for accuracy.  Many credit unions check the disclosure box on the report as provided only “on demand.”

While some merger disclosures were required from a 2018 rule, NCUA’s oversight of the rule is inconsistent and lacking in any meaningful effort to inform members about the transaction.  Merger actors have perfected the arts of circumventing required benefit disclosures.

The supposed democratic governance model of one person one vote in annual board elections never happens, because there are no elections.   The board controls the nominations to just equal the vacancies.

Even when the rare election takes place, the ability of members to learn about candidates’ position is not offered by the credit union-except for incumbents.  See the current SECU board contest as an example.

In almost all other institutions dealing with the public, the SEC mandates disclosures far beyond anything credit unions provide so that owners of companies can be informed about the basis for transactions.

NCUA has completely ignored any obligation to protect the rights of member-owners compromising the fundamental governance mechanism in a cooperative.

Transparency Is a Requirement for Democracy

It’s no accident that the Post’s motto was aimed at governmental secrecy. The one exception I would raise to Frank’s thesis is that he wants NCUA to require greater disclosure.  The regulators are part of the problem.

NCUA repeatedly draws its own curtains of secrecy over its actions and even “facts.”  Listen closely to today’s hearing on the NCUSIF for reference to undisclosed econometric models and staff actions not subject to public or even board scrutiny.

When the NCUA chair was asked recently about a well-publicized problem in a credit union, he commented that he couldn’t talk about such situations and pivoted to the need for more authority over vendors.   NCUA itself fails to put on the public record the details for its decisions leaving both members and the industry in the dark about its effectiveness or even awareness of key events.

The Transparency Advantage

Frank closes with another reason, beyond the owners right for relevant information to make informed decisions about the credit union’s activities.

It is a moral issue that can put cooperatives on the ethical high ground or cast them as just another form of  self-serving enterprise:

“Not only would documenting all that (about bank purchases) be the right and ethical thing to do, it would make for an effective response to critics. . . that claim credit unions are just “profit-seeking enterprises masquerading as tax-exempt non-profits.”

Transparency is a leadership requirement.  It creates trust and confidence even when things go wrong.  Doing the right thing should not require a rule or reg.   It is a character trait.  Cooperatives and transparency are naturally intertwined, until pulled apart.  As Frank points out, that separation undermines the special possibilities and accomplishments cooperatives were empowered to do.

 

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What to Listen For in Thursday’s NCUSIF Update at NCUA

Cooperative design is a unique competitive advantage in a capitalist society.  The success of for- profit firms is based on their ability to extract value from their customers to create maximum return for their owners.

In coops the owners are the customers.  This alignment creates a financial and a trust superiority versus competitors when the model is managed well.

In 1984 the NCUSIF was redesigned following coop practice. This change drew from the experiences of over a dozen successful state chartered insurance funds. The design’s core feature is the 1% deposit perpetual underwriting with explicit checks on the oversight and management of the fund by NCUA.

One of these oversight tools is the monthly posting of the full NCUSIF financials on NCUA’s website. This is the same regular reporting NCUA requires by credit unions to their member-owners.

Quarterly the NCUSIF Board is publicly briefed on staff’s management of the fund.   This provides the credit union owners insight into the Board’s oversight of credit union members’ funds.

The June 2023 financials have been posted.   There will be additional numbers  such  as CAMELS score distributions, projections and updates on investment management-the Fund’s largest asset in the meeting.

What should credit unions look for in the briefing?  How do board members query staff’s performance?

What NCUA Staff Manages: Retained Earnings

The primary indicator of the Fund’s performance is retained earnings.  The responsibility is to maintain a retained earnings ratio of  .20% to .30% (the traditional floor and cap) of insured savings.   This ratio can be tracked every quarter as the industry reports its insured share total in the 5300 call reports, and NCUA reports NCUSIF’s retained earnings for the same quarter end.

The history shows this ratio tends to be very stable with minimal change even when some factors, such as share growth, show wide fluctuations. Below are the actual results of this ratio over the past three and a half years:

Dec ‘20:  .3179%

Dec ’21:  .2942%

Dec ’22:  .2922%

Mar ’23; .2883%

Jun  ‘23:  .2908%

Adding the 1% of insured savings as of the same date shows that the normal operating level (NOL) has been very steady at the upper end of its traditional cap of 1.3%.

In the May 2023 NCUSIF board update as of March, staff projected an NOL of 1.25% at June, down from the December ’22 ratio of 1.3%. This hypothetical forecast suggested the retained earnings “cushion” would fall by half in just six months.  It was misleading and incorrect.

This 4 basis point error was due to two inaccurate projections in the presentation:  the retained earnings for June came in $31.3 million  higher and insured share growth $32.3 billion lower than the forecasted numbers.  This outcome should be a caution about future projections. This estimate was provided just  45 days before the June month end with  recent trends readily available.

Managing the Retained Earnings Outcome

One revenue and two expense items are management’s responsibility in achieving  retained earnings.

The first and most immediate is operating expenses.  Through June the NCUSIF expenses have grown 13.7% or $14 million more than expended through the first six months of 2022.  This is double the Fund’s long term rate of expense growth since 2008 of 6.9%.  Across all three credit union provided funds, the combined expenses grew 14% in the first six months of 2023, an indication of government’s ability to spend when checks and balances are lacking.

The second factor is the expense provision for insurance loss. To date  in 2023 the fund has added $20 million in additional provision expense versus  actual losses of just $1 million.  The June 2022 reserve was $169 million increased to $204 million one year later.

The reserve expense comes out of retained earnings.  Currently it equals 1.2 basis points of total insured risk.  Since the taxi medallion losses, the NCUSIF has not reported net cash losses for an entire year exceeding 1 basis point since 2013.   If there is a formula NCUA uses in preparing this reserving level, then that should be published so the assumptions can be validated with actual experience.

The Single Revenue Driver

The third factor and only revenue item other than an infrequent premium, is the earnings on the $22 billion par value investment portfolio.  By law, no premium can be charged if the NOL exceeds 1.3%.

Since December 2021 the NCUSIF’s portfolio market value has been below book.  The market loss was $1.7 billion at Dec ’22, $1.3 billion at March ’23 and then rising back up to $1.5 billion at June.

The year to date yield is 1.79% but is slowly rising and was 1.95% for June.  At the close of markets yesterday,  short term treasury rates up to one year were in the 5.5% range.   The seven year bond closed at 4.47%.  The inverted yield curve started in July 2022 when short term rates were higher than longer maturities.   NCUA announced a change in its short term liquidty target in November of 2022.

The NCUSIF’s investment strategy is to provide sufficient funds “to meet operating costs and liquidity needs without having to sell investments at a loss or use the agency’s borrowing authority.” 

The market loss at every investment bucket except overnights at June monthend, shows this objective has not been met.   If even half of the $22 billion investments were short term, the yield of over 5% would produce revenue of $550 million and result in more than sufficient income to meet the fund’s operating needs, sustain a 1.3% NOL and pay a significant dividend to the credit unions underwriting the fund.

The NCUSIF’s current weighted average yield is 2.85 years. Should market rates stay at this level, that is the approximate time it would take for the entire portfolio to return to par.   This would result in a market underperformance of five years or more from the time the first time the fund showed a combined value below market.

Tomorrow’s meeting will be a critical time to see how staff has evaluated this extended period of below market performance. What changes do they anticipate going forward to better align performance with the two policy goals?  What interest rate risk monitoring enhancement is needed to avoid this situation in the future?

What about Share Growth?

The only other factor affecting the retained earnings-NOL ratio is credit union share growth.  To maintain a stable .2 to  .3 ratio, the net income must grow at the same rate as insured savings.

But NCUA staff do not control share growth, only the three factors above. In the second half of 2022, insured savings had a negative growth of $5.0 million.  That could be the outcome again in 2023.  For example the second largest credit union, SECU NC, had a negative share growth of 8% for the 12 months ending this June.

Fortunately it is very easy to model all four variables in a dynamic spread sheet through the end of the year.   For example if one assumes fund expenses of $220 million, insurance provision of .5 basis point of insured shares, 2% annual share growth, a 1.85% portfolio return, then the current retained earnings ratio would increase from the June level to .2969 or just short of the .30 historical cap triggering a dividend.

Here is the model anyone can use.  Any of the four variables can be changed, even the yearend  retained earnings currently at .30%.  The latest actual data can be input daily if necessary.

One option is to run what ifs and breakeven analysis. For example if the fund’s investment yield had been 2%  higher for this year (3.85%), and all else the same, the yearend outcome would be an retained earnings ratio of .3225 or $387 million above the .3% traditional cap resulting in  a dividend for credit unions.

The 1% True up Calculation

At the current time, NCUA uses a bifurcated ratio calculation for the yearend NOL.   It uses the most recent retained earnings and insured shares.  However staff,  instead of recognizing the 1% statutory liability from credit unions, includes a six month old figure  from June in the denominator.

The currrent NOL number is an inaccurate and misleading presentation of the fund’s real financial position.

For example using the current June 1% capital deposit number omits entirely the obligation of 49% of credit unions with assets less than $50 million.  These are not required to submit a June 1% trueup.

In the past, the use of a six month old total 1% deposit amount has led to an understatement of the actual NOL calculation at yearend.   This underreporting keeps credit unions from a potential dividend which was the commitment made for their open-ended perpetual 1% underwriting.

If that same method is used at 2023 year end and there is a major runoff in insured savings in the second half, then using the six month old 1% deposit  will overstate the NOL and potentially trigger a dividend from a ratio six months out of date.  If the 8% decline in SECU’s 12 month share growth were to occur across the industry, a dividend would be likely even with the 1.33% NOL.

This 1% late trueup recognition has been raised in Board meetings for almost 2 years.   Staff has promised to provide options from an outside CPA firm’s review.   Board members have referred to recommendations in the study that provide ways to better present the actual ratio.  It’s time the NCUSIF bring this ratio into a better presentation of the fund’s stability and strength.

The NCUSIF is a Cooperative Advantage

When well managed the NCUSIF is a competitive advantage for credit unions versus FDIC insured institutions.   The FDIC ratio of fund balance to insured savings was 1.10% at June 2023.  Banks are facing increasing insurance premiums far into the future to bring the ratio back to the immediate goal of 1.35%.   For cooperatives, the 1% deposit ensures the NCUSIF size is always relatively constant to the insured shares risk.

Since the 2008/9 financial crisis and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing to sustain the economy, short term rates have fallen to historic lows.  Folling the Covid shutdown this resulted in ZIRP, or zero interest rate policy, leading to the subsequent inflation.

The Fed has made clear its intent to return to a 2% inflation level with real interest rates in excess of that goal.   During this time of near zero rates, the NCUSIF, like many credit unions, went long hoping to pick up yield.  In doing so it fell short of its two primary objectives of liquidity (without resorting to borrowing) and easily covering operating expenses.

This Thursday’s board meeting is an opportunity to see how Board members and staff react to the changing rate environment and their role overseeing the fund’s performance.  Tune in.

 

 

 

 

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A Democratic Renaissance Emerging In Credit Unions

Three events, two ongoing, one finished for now, have centered around member voting on the future direction of their cooperatives.

Each election is triggered by specific circumstances.  But they illustrate the benefits of going to member-owners for approval.

Voting is the essence of democratic governance, whether this is for local school board candidates, a political office or national politics.

The instinctive “rightness” of individual voting is so obvious that  the most authoritarian regimes  put on a charade of democratic process.  For even the most dictatorial leaders, voting connotes legitimacy.

In America, freedom and voting are inextricably linked.   When those in power seek to perpetuate their positions, manipulating or questioning the voting process is an ever-present threat to democratic rule.

A Frustrated Member’s Article

One long-time credit union member expressed his exasperation with his Board’s “closed shop”  elections in this opening of a public article.

I asked a friend recently if she could provide an answer based on the following clues:

1) It has billions of dollars in assets;

2) The overseers are not elected, rather;

3) they are appointed among themselves;

4) there are never any elections; and

5) all meetings are closed.

My friend guessed Belarus – a good guess, but Belarus has elections.

The answer is Orange County’s very own SchoolsFirst Federal Credit Union – the largest financial institution in the county and the fifth largest credit union in the nation. . .

The rest of the critique, Schools First . . .Democracy Last, by Dr.  Barry Resnick is here.

What makes credit union design unique is democratic governance–each member has one vote no matter their  savings and deposit balances.  Federal credit unions prohibit proxy voting  further reinforcing each member’s  ballot sovereignty.  Not all state charters have this limitation.

In credit unions, the people rule.  Cooperatives are, in theory, on the front lines in the practice democratic governance.  This was central to their public purpose and tax exemption. Since there have always been more poor people than financially well off, credit unions were intended to be a means to enhance economic equity for all.   Through member loans, the bulk of the population was to have  financing access that  those with wealth easily take for granted.

Moreover, voting for directors converts private, closed decision making in institutions into public accountability.

But to work, the people need to be informed even educated as to their owner role.   Voting is one of vital means for this process.   Candidates or leaders present their priorities to the membership  and seek support.

Democracy is much more than rules, bylaws, or following Robert’s Rules of Order at the annual meeting. These details do matter, but democracy requires a commitment for leaders to take their ideas to the public versus bureaucratic maneuvers to perpetuate positions of power.

Without the test of the ballot, incumbents may not see things as they are.  Rather they see the things that confirm to their assumptions or preferred way of looking at the world.

The Growing Distance

When  credit unions were predominately local,  member voting may be less vital because they see what’s happening with their own eyes.   When credit unions grow large, distant and generic, their responsiveness via democratic process becomes more crucial.

Credit unions have proven to be a success in creating very large, financially successful depository institutions.   But they rarely cultivate their members’ ownership role.

Absent voting where there are more candidates than open seats, credit union strategic priorities reflect incumbent power not policies  supported via a public contest of ideas and priorities.

When boards are on top, any public voting can be viewed as  threatening to their position.  Without leaders efforts to build “civic virtues” democracy can become form without substance.

Why Voting matters

“Democracy holds us together. We are a country rooted in the rule of law, where the protection of the rights of all people is paramount.” (G-20 Press release) Credit unions are a small but vital part of the democratic ethos that Americans often take for granted.

Member  voting is how their ownership  rights are cultivated and protected.  NCUA has long turned its back on any role in this responsibility.

When the will of the people is circumvented, the result is a growing erosion of member influence.  It is easier to lose member confidence than gain it.  Becoming customers versus owners, makes it easier for members to move accounts to a better deal whenever than comes along.

The Need for political courage

Democratic leadership is hard.  It takes courage and maturity to control the  human instinct to accumulate and maintain power.

Cooperatives  must evolve not merely financially, but also in their political  role with members if they are to remain bearers of their trust and unity.   Institutions should work for people, not the other way around.

Today, one can easily identify institutions and activities in the cooperative system that appear more motivated by self-interest than mutual benefit.

The first rule of democracy is the willingness to discuss, debate and argue about what troubles us.   Truth is not achieved by hiring a PR firm to sell a story or presenting a one-sided marketing campaign that has all the hallmarks of propaganda.

Transparency with full and timely information is the key to democratic practice.  I will follow with  commentary on three situations that I believe show the upside of cooperative democracy in action.

Also, a current  example of a credit union’s promotion of open board elections at Frontwave is described in this July 6 blog, Here They Go Again.

 

 

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An Opportunity for the Combined Trade Group: America’s Credit Unions.

The merger of CUNA and NAFCU proceeds apace.   The 60-day voting period by members began yesterday. Already scheduled NAFCU educational and network meetings continue. CUNA President Nussle will attend NAFCU’s Congressional Caucus in September to show a united Washington effort.

Joint transition committees have been appointed.  One initial product was a proposed dues structure. As I read the announcement, members of both organizations are expected to continue  paying the same dues  to the new organization until 2027 (three more years) following the same fee structure in place at December 2023.  It seems illogical  to pay dues for a nonexistant organization three years past its demise.

If credit unions are members of both trade groups, “Dual members are encouraged to pay membership dues for both organizations” even though NAFCU nor longer exists.  Apparently, economic efficiency is not a current goal of the merger.

An Immediate Opportunity for a Unified Effort

The merger process has been focused on the political steps necessary for member approval and  less the potential offered from a “unified voice” in DC.  Even though the political agenda may emerge down the road, there is one immediate opportunity that could demonstrate the possibilities of a combined lobbying capability.

An NCUA board position is now open as Rodney Hood’s term expired this month.  This new member’s six-year tenure should outlast the two current members.  It could extend over two presidential election-administration cycles.

For many recent appointments the expectations, even needs, of the credit union community have not been seen as a factor in the Administration’s choices.   The result is that new board members are strangers to both the Agency and the credit union system.  Think Metsger, McWatters and Hauptman.  Having prior NCUA experience as a staff or board member (Harper and Hood) may be useful, but it still does not bring an industry or coop perspective.

One longtime, now retired, CUSO CEO Randy Karnes (CU*Answers) commented during an earlier appointment cycle: “Cooperative principles make us different. When the NCUA believes that and Washington believes that, we have a stronger system.  But when nobody believes that, then it’s simply about banking regulations. I think our system’s position is weaker, and NCUA is not even thinking about their own brand.”

“Congress didn’t create the credit union charter because the nation needed “nice banks.”

In that same appointment cycle, there was a public White House petition, CO-OPS 4 Change, asking that the administration,  “choose NCUA leaders who understand cooperatives.”  And, “who recognize the shared economic value for people and communities created by the Cooperative model from the seven cooperative principles.”

Jobs for the “Boys” or for Cooperative Leadership

All NCUA appointments result from political ambitions and relationships.   That need not be inconsistent with cooperative leadership.  Earlier NCUA appointments included candidates with credit union experience such as retired and active CEO’s, state coop regulators, CUSO executives and even some with trade association connections.

Knowledge of the evolution of the credit union system and its current status can make regulatory decisions more informed and relevant. The unique structure of the NCUSIF, the potential for a fully engaged CLF, the self-interested trends in mergers, the paucity of new charters, and the continuing use of members’ savings to pay off bank shareholders are critical industry topics.

Even with experienced senior advisors, appointees without credit union knowledge easily default to Agency staff perspectives.

As the combined America’s Credit Union marches forward under a single banner, this appointment is an immediate test of its potential role.  Will the promise of enhanced influence bring forth potential nominees who have cooperative experience? Or will the person be another unknown to credit unions? Can the industry hope members’ needs will  be paramount in a proposed board member’s regulatory views?

The appointment, whenever announced, could provide vital insight about potential benefits of a united credit union voice in DC.