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The Cooperative Advantage in Mutual Funds

The fastest growing mutual fund family over the past decade has been the Vanguard funds. Their products feature no load, low cost index funds. The underlying philosophy is that investors cannot beat the market. Paying fees to investment managers that claim superior returns not only locks in higher costs, but also the claim to beat market averages is rarely achieved.

But there is one other critical advantage that allows Vanguard to offer this approach to investing contrary to the market positioning of virtually all other major mutual fund advisors. The funds are owned by their investors.

As described in a recent LA Times article: “the investment group is swelling at a dramatic pace, thanks to one crucial advantage over its rivals: It is owned by its own funds, allowing it to use profits after covering costs and business investments to lower its fees, rather than reward outside shareholders with dividends and buybacks.

In other words, the more it grows, the cheaper its funds can become, in turn generating more growth — a virtuous cycle that has helped Vanguard more than triple in size since 2011. It is particularly dominant in the U.S., where last year it took in more money than its two biggest rivals, BlackRock and Fidelity, combined, according to Morningstar.

Vanguard today accounts for over a quarter of the entire U.S. mutual-fund market — a market share almost as big as Fidelity, BlackRock and Capital Group put together — and it is one of the biggest shareholders in virtually every major listed U.S. company.”

A Harbinger for Credit Unions?

NCUA Chairman Ed Callahan (1981-1985) frequently described credit unions as America’s best kept secret or a “sleeping giant.”

Vanguard is a powerful example for cooperative design where the user-owners are the sole focus of management’s priorities. Could Vanguard’s success become an example for credit union’s future contribution to the American economy?

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From the Field: Concerns About Leadership for CU America

The following email recently landed. The writer lists multiple concerns which reflect a lack of vision for the system. My experience is that his concerns are widely shared. Following used with permission:

I find myself squirming about another CU Times article pushing mergers.

  • A month or so ago I was talking with an Ohio CU CEO who shocked me with the tale that the NCUA was pushing them toward dropping their State charter because the CU was informed they would never be a candidate to acquire a CU in a merger if they did not fall back into the Federal ranks.
  • A few months before that I was contacted that my credit union was “ripe” and a good candidate for merger and wanted to know if I was interested further.
  • A year before that we were pulled from consideration from a perfect merger candidate when the NCUA put a rep in their shop to “facilitate” and pushed it toward a fed charter CU.
  • All of these things have been like an itch I can’t scratch. Here are my thoughts on lack of vision and these pressures:
    • I thought it was about member choice? – doesn’t the Boards know that they are the representatives and should stand up for their base’s wishes?
    • If CU Times and NCUA are going to champion mergers, why do they need MORE operating budget?
    • Why are well capitalized smaller, even the tiniest, cu’s “ripe” for anything?
    • What happened to the unique circumstance that brought them in to existence? – why is that not relevant now?
    • Why do CU leaders not recognize the risk to loss of tax status if we just keep consolidating, homogenizing, embracing banking attitudes and strategies, not evangelizing currently recognizable differences.
    • Why does the national leadership groups keep beating this drum? – what is the agenda and long-term vision for CU America?
    • Is CUNA Management school really focused on creating opportunities for CU rising stars in an environment that is saying less and less opportunities will be available?
    • When did CU leaders agree not to be cooperative and eat our own?
    • Can we get efficient with process and products and investments and keep our uniqueness out front?
    • NCUA approved 50 mergers in the 3rd quarter 2019 (138 Q3 2018) – what was the value gained for the industry?
    • Growth and value are not the same thing
  • These may seem like rantings with no clear meaning/point/resolutions. I may not be able to articulate the concern but my hackles are up and the lack of national CU leadership recognition and the media that pander to it are making me feel like I put on that thick scratchy wool sweater that you have to wear to a relative’s house because they gave it to you.
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A Question of Leadership

What makes a leader? In the cooperative system, as in many other organizations, the answer is presumed to be those selected for the highest level jobs.

In the case of credit unions this might be the CEO of a trade association, the Chair of NCUA or maybe several of the CEOs of top ten credit union by asset size. Or maybe a very consequential business partner providing essential services to hundreds of credit unions.

However leadership does not automatically accrue to positions of responsibility. For some will chose to be managers of their institution only, others seek personal agendas, and some will be content with the recognition and rewards that come with their position.

Leadership In Cooperatives

For many credit union CEOs, it is tempting to assign the challenge of leadership to others. It is a big enough job after all, just to manage a credit union and board. Leadership of the larger system is for those who have a broader base or mandate.

However, in a cooperative system, leadership comes from the grassroots up. Which means leaders take stands and look beyond the boundaries of their own firm to shape opportunities in the system which has spawned them.

Leadership is not conferred with a job title. It is earned through engagement, courage and foresight.

When was the last time your credit union took a stand to change the status quo? What was at stake? What did you learn?

If the answer is “I don’t know” then ask do you want to shape the future or let the future shape you?

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What’s in a Name?

”What’s in a name? That which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.”

The question that Romeo poses to Juliet suggests that it is not a name but the person, or substance of a thing, that matters.

Credit Union Names Evolve

Upon chartering most credit unions adopted names that identified their common bond. Starting a credit union generally required one of three fields of membership: affiliation by employer, by association or by community.

Credit union names reflected this core legal identity for example: IBM Southeast Employees, International Harvester, GTE, St Paul’s Parrish, or 717 Credit Union.

But as companies merged or laid off staff and the membership broadened, names became more generic: Community First, Workers, Family First, Together or MY Credit union.

And today many new names reflect the impact of branding consultants with aspirational titles such as: Aspire, Ascend, People’s Choice, NuVision or Credit Human

The Name: CommonBond

So I was intrigued that a fintech startup from the 2011 chose the name CommonBond to describe its firm.

Since 2012, it has made over $4 billion in new or refinanced student loans. But why call the firm Common Bond? Is a tangible connection being referred to? Is there an insight possibly drawn from credit unions, but now forgotten, as names evolve into branding events?

The firm’s business model is to target student loan refinancing and new borrowings. The market is millennials. So how are they trying to connect with this demographic beyond a virtual platform with competitive products and pricing?

The first declaration from their website is a statement of their business philosophy:

OUR SOCIAL PROMISE: A better way to do business

The way we see it, businesses have a responsibility to do more than just business. We’re passionate about giving people the opportunity to live their dreams, and we know improving student loans is just one way we can make a world of difference.
Our partnership with Pencils of Promise has provided schools, teachers, and technology to thousands of young students in the developing world and our yearly trip to Ghana gives customers and team members a chance to visit the amazing classrooms we’ve built together.

As described in a TIME magazine note: “The firm offers services to anyone with a degree from a not-for-profit American university regardless of citizenship, so long as he or she meets the other criteria. The company is also the first and only finance firm to offer what it calls a “one-for-one” social mission: for every degree fully funded on the company’s platform, it also pays for a year of education for a child in a developing nation.”

It also partners with employers as noted in a Fast Company article: “CommonBond has skirted the fates of other online lending companies in recent years by partnering with employers to turn student loan repayment into something like the 401(k)s of the millennial and gen-Z workforces. The goal was to tackle two financial problems in tandem: the costly turnover facing employers and the debt weighing down their youngest employees. CommonBond has racked up more than 250 business partners to deliver its debt-refinancing program as a work perk…”

Empowering

In CommonBond’s 2018 annual review, a video describes its core purpose as empowering the community, the workforce and the world.

The company relies on venture capital and wholesale funding sources including sales of bonds backed by student loans to the secondary market. This would lead one to believe that their funding costs must be higher than credit unions which rely on share deposits. Various student loan website comparisons say their rates are competitive, but there is no way to know the details unless one submits an application.

Therefore the initial positioning strategy of CommonBond is critical to attract prospective borrowers via the Internet. There is no prior relationship and no physical branches to serve borrowers.

The company is private and publishes no financials, so we do not know how financially sustainable its model is at this point in time. But what is clear is that the business design is focused on a set of values and actions that they believe will appeal to students who borrow for college. These concepts include social purpose, a global perspective, supporting educational projects, providing advice on college/work choices, partnering with employers, and empowering individuals through loans.

The company’s transactions are based on the belief that there is a need for a better student loan options, but that is not the starting point for their appeal. It is instead a description of values and commitments to attract prospects by making them feel comfortable when providing their personal information to evaluate a loan option.

With no legacy business reputation to rely upon, CommonBond instead must present a corporate profile that students, who are strangers to the company, will trust. Is that an example that credit unions can learn from as naming exercises continue? Or to paraphrase an expression : That which we would call a credit union by any other name should still be as trusted as before.

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Martin Luther King’s Eternal Question

The legacy of Martin Luther King, Jr. covers many areas of public and democratic life. Based on a philosophy of non-violent protest, he transformed the civil rights movement into a national priority. Before he was killed, he had also spoken out against the Vietnam War in Vietnam and organized the Poor People’s March on Washington. The march’s goal has been transformed today into a growing concern with income inequality as the American economy celebrates a full decade of positive growth.

But as important and unfinished as these concerns are, I think King’s legacy for an individual may be more vital than a specific issue on one’s social/political agenda.

A Call for Self-Reflection and Awareness

In his I Have a Dream speech on the steps of the Lincoln monument, he prefaced his dreams with the following:

“We have also come to this hallowed spot to remind America of the fierce urgency of now. This is no time to engage in the luxury of cooling off or to take the tranquilizing drug of gradualism.”

The Urgency of Now. That is the never ending question that each person answers in their everyday actions and priorities. It has both personal and professional or civic dimensions.

As credit union leaders, what is the most urgent priority motivating your leadership? Yes, circumstances can reorder priorities. But when do these become challenged? At a time when the cooperative system has record levels of reserves, members and assets, is better financial performance the most urgent issue?

A holiday from work is a time to step back, catch up, run errands or even honor the underlying reason for the day off. King’s holiday reminds us that what we do every day, the Now, matters. What is the urgency that causes you to get out of bed in the morning? What should it be?

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Mistakes and the Beauty of Music

One of my hobbies is choral singing. Both in church choirs and at adult singing vacations in summer.

A choir director whom I follow tells the following about how professional muscians handle mistakes.

“The Baroque trumpet is really just a piece of bent tubing with a bell on one end and a mouthpiece on the other.

On a modern trumpet there are valves to change the effective length of the instrument, and thus to make notes more playable.

On the Baroque trumpet it’s all done with tiny and precise pressure adjustments of the lips with the difference between the notes shrinking as the range rises.

It makes the instrument famously difficult to play.

Historically, trumpet players have had big, bold personalities, something akin to fighter pilots. He or she must be confident in their abilities with even a touch of well-earned swagger.

A player hits a lot of notes, and makes them sound beautiful, but sometimes, a note will just fail to sound, or worse, come out in a loud and rather atonal squeak.

“What do you do when that happens in public?” I asked of a player who is a frequent soloist in the Messiah movement, The Trumpet Shall Sound, “like when you’re standing at the high pulpit playing out over the cathedral packed with 3,000 people?”

“How do you keep from having your confidence shaken for the notes that are yet to come after something goes wrong?”

I was speaking from experience. As an organist with many notes to play, some of them quite obvious if they go wrong, I’ve felt my confidence shaken after a mistake. Voices within berating me for many measures that follow. A wry smile came across his highly trained lips.

“I don’t even think about my mistakes,” he said. “I’m focused on the beauty of the musical line I’m playing.””

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Investing in a 10 Year Rising Stock Market

It is hard not to feel very smart or lucky if you have made investments in the stock market during its 10 year bull run. Virtually all asset classes in 2019 increased in the high teens to more than 20% for broad market indexes. These are great returns especially when compared to risk-free CDs, which have earned 2% or less annually during the same period.

Most forecasts for 2020 support continuation of the current 2% GDP growth trends and a rising stock market. No recession or market retreat is foreseen. What could possibly go wrong?

Looking at Some Details

To the extent stock prices reflect the present value of anticipated future earnings, there seems to be a growing disconnect between stock prices and projected earnings. Especially for smaller companies. A cautionary analysis of 2019’s soaring market was written by James Mackintosh in the WSJ last Friday. He points out that the percentage of all listed companies reporting losses in the last 12 months is close to 40%. The highest level since the late 1990’s, outside recessionary periods.

Moreover, he cites another analyst who calculates that the proportion of US-listed companies losing money for three years also reached its highest point last year. The caveat in this second observation is that these are small companies which in total represent less than 5% of the market’s overall value.

Two thoughts. Almost all credit union member business lending is to small companies. And secondly, one of the eternal verities about market returns is “reversion to the mean.” That is average returns will revert to long term “normalized”values over time. Could 2020 be such a year?

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Maya Angelou-Reflects on Why We Collaborate

This is a poem that deals with togetherness. It was published in 1975 in her book Oh Pray My Wings Are Gonna Fit Me Well.

Alone

Lying, thinking
Last night
How to find my soul a home
Where water is not thirsty
And bread loaf is not stone
I came up with one thing
And I don’t believe I’m wrong
That nobody,
But nobody
Can make it out here alone.

Alone, all alone
Nobody, but nobody
Can make it out here alone.

There are some millionaires
With money they can’t use
Their wives run round like banshees
Their children sing the blues
They’ve got expensive doctors
To cure their hearts of stone.
But nobody
No, nobody
Can make it out here alone.

Alone, all alone
Nobody, but nobody
Can make it out here alone.

Now if you listen closely
I’ll tell you what I know
Storm clouds are gathering
The wind is gonna blow
The race of man is suffering
And I can hear the moan,
‘Cause nobody,
But nobody
Can make it out here alone.

Alone, all alone
Nobody, but nobody
Can make it out here alone.

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What is the Value of a Member Account?

This week my wife received a mail promotion from BB&T bank inviting her to open a checking account.

If she chose their Elite Gold product with either a $35,000 deposit or direct deposits totaling at least $3,000 per month, than they will pay a bonus of $600 into the account.

The only time limit is she must leave the deposit for 75 days or have the direct deposit(s) established in the same time frame.

Acquisition Cost and Future Value

Paying cash to incentivize new account relationships is not a new strategy. USAA regularly solicits my credit card business with a $200 cash offer.

But the amount of $600 seemed to be unusually high. Why?

I don’t know the answer. Is there a new awareness of the value of a consumer’s payment account in a low interest environment? Or is this an effort to preempt Fintech deposit acquisitions? Does the amount reflect a targeted marketing strategy for a specific demographic, such as retirees? Or is it just paying the present value of a long term customer relationship for the bank? Is the $600 based on documented acquisition costs from other marketing efforts, which it will now amortize over the estimated life of the relationship?

The Value of Members

What the offer should remind credit unions is the value of their checking account relationships, especially those with direct deposit. There is unrecorded but real value, from those members whose loyalty often goes back decades. These core deposit relationships underwrite much of the rest of the credit union’s activity.

If you have a 10,000 member credit union half of whom have checking accounts with direct deposit, according to BB&T that is $300,000 of real value to the market. Or to be more analytical, what is the prospect of BB&T’s ability to earn more than 1.7% ($600/$35,000) if the average relationship from this marketing remains with the bank for at least one year?

Even more fundamental, should credit unions still require a membership fee?

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Scale and the Law of Diminishing Returns

The most common rationale for credit union growth is to achieve new scale. Larger size is meant to bring more efficiency, productivity and market clout. And hopefully member value.

In a situation where everything or everyone else stays constant, growing larger might produce this outcome. But even in the most hospitable circumstances, the law of diminishing returns sets in.

Learning From Another Industry Serving Consumers

In a recent plane flight I sat next to a mining engineer from Houston, Texas. We talked about the largest and deepest mines in the world including a mile-deep open pit copper mine run by Kennecott in Utah.

Productivity is measured by the ounces of ore (1-3 oz) per ton of rock extracted. The constant challenge for geological engineers is to try to find veins so mining is still economically feasible. But, sooner or later, ore recovery is not worth the additional cost.

Our discussion then turned to Houston’s recent floods in part exacerbated by the city’s paving over much of its surface area by concrete. As an example he mentioned that Houston had the widest highway system anywhere in the world.

I returned home and found this was no Texas exaggeration. The Katy Freeway covers 26 lanes of freeways, toll lanes, frontage and emergency roads. At Beltway 8 it is in fact the largest according to the Houston Chronicle.

The Result of Becoming the Biggest Highway

So did this investment from 2008 help traffic flow faster? At first, for a short time, it did. But now, traffic engineers call it a Monument to Futility.

For as capacity is increased, so does “induced demand.” In fact, the same journey now takes longer on this highway mammoth than before the expansion.

My flight companion told me one result of this new congestion is that companies the highway has meant to serve are now moving to less crowded areas of the Houston metroplex. Not just the head office, but also tens of thousands of employees jobs are relocating for more open spaces.

The moral is that scale changes things, some unanticipated or even unintended. Consumers’ loyalty to is rarely based on size or scale-“the biggest”. Rather satisfaction comes from service and personal responsiveness.

Many factors cause each credit union to be the size it is today. Understanding that legacy may be more valuable than yearning for bigger scale wherein existing comparative and competitive advantages are significantly lessened in exchange for unproven future benefits.