Author: Chip Filson

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The Bard on This Time of Year

These lines from Hamlet, Act I scene I, upon seeing the ghost,  are like a favorite ornament at this time of year;

Marcellus: Some say that ever ‘gainst that season comes
Wherein our Saviour’s birth is celebrated,
This bird of dawning singeth all night long;
And then, they say, no spirit dare stir abroad,
The nights are wholesome, then no planets strike,
No fairy takes, nor witch hath power to charm,
So hallow’d and so gracious is the time.

Horatio: So have I heard and do in part believe it.

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The Artist Banksy on Social Purpose at Christmas

Any fan of modern art should have no problem recognizing the name Banksy. He is one of the most renowned street artists of this generation. His pieces push the boundaries of political and social activism. Every new street scene draws crowds making his art a public spectacle whenever they appear. His work is usually a “call-out” of current society or a send up of a political taboo. He is a revolutionary with a spray can.

Every Christmas season he issues a new holiday street card. They evoke familiar images and invariably provoke response. His many seasonal efforts can be found on Google.

His December 2019 work “God Bless Birmingham” can be viewed here: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-birmingham-50715803

I enjoy his painting commentaries as they communicate so readily with viewers. Those who visit his pop up sites, feel he is on their side. Whatever the topic, a painter for the people.

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NCUA Board Member Harper’s Uninformed Stance on Risk-Based Capital (RBC)

It is one thing to be uninformed on a critical issue of public policy. It is another to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt. And then compound the folly by writing a public editorial after losing a 2 to 1 vote at the most recent NCUA Board meeting.

Harper’s Rationale for Implementing Risk Based Capital Rules

The core logic in his December 16 press release follows: (https://www.cujournal.com/opinion/ncua-a-day-late-and-a-dollar-short-after-delaying-capital-rule

After the Great Recession, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and other banking regulators moved promptly to update and implement their risk-based capital standards. Yet the NCUA wants to delay implementation for a second time. Why should it take complex, federally insured credit unions with $500 million or more in assets seven or eight years longer to implement their comparable risk-based capital rule than it took for banks and thrifts to implement theirs? That’s an uneven regulatory playing field…

Pursuant to the Basel Accords, which sets international best practices, no modern financial institution’s regulatory system operates without a meaningful risk-based capital component. Not only would the 2015 RBC rule finally bring the NCUA into greater compliance with the Basel framework, it’s required by law in the Credit Union Membership Access Act. That’s why the risk-based capital standard is consistent with the cooperative nature of the credit union system and provides comparability to the other federal banking regulators.

The Argument is Dead Wrong

Apparently, Board Member Harper and his staff have been so busy that they have failed to note that on September 17, 2019, the FDIC eliminated all risk-based capital requirements for community banks with assets less than $10 billion. The policy was supported by the OCC and Federal Reserve.

Banks are no longer required to calculate or to report the ratio. They will be considered well capitalized under PCA if they meet a simple leverage ratio.

This simple leverage ratio is the PCA model for credit unions. The banking regulators have endorsed the credit union’s current and historical approach to capital adequacy measurement.

Harper now wants to impose this failed system on credit unions. The banking regulator’s actions acknowledged that RBC is not only burdensome, but more importantly, it does not work in practice. As one banking analyst Tom Brown observed as early as 2014:

We’ve already seen that the risk-based approach does not work. It’s obvious that neither man nor model can adequately assess a given asset’s risk under all circumstances before the fact. It doesn’t make sense to spend a lot of time trying. It does make sense to have a minimum leverage ratio, but it should be the same for banks of all sizes.”

Source: A Loss of liquidity, not inadequate capital, is what often dooms banks. Bankstocks.com, April 22, 2014

Similarly, Harper’s references in his editorial to Basel, the taxi medallion failures and the role of capital in credit unions are inaccurate. More importantly his reference to an “uneven regulatory playing field” demonstrates a complete failure to grasp cooperative design, its distinctive strengths versus for-profit financial models, and the unique role of the NCUSIF’s pool of credit union capital.

The Failure of NCUA Board Leadership

When NCUA board members appear so oblivious to the realities of their responsibility, other leaders must step up. Call out the erroneous facts and logic. Present reasonable solutions. And if that fails, go to Congress and the press.

This public bumbling undermines the public reputation of the NCUA board and the cooperative system it regulates. It calls to question the ability of the board members to oversee their responsibilities not just for policy but also for basic tasks of examination, supervision and funding oversight.

The track record described below suggest the current NCUA board has a long way to go to overcome a growing list oversight failures.

Read more from the blog:

 

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A Poem for Cooperative Designers

I was sitting through a somewhat disjointed lecture. Jeffrey Race was describing his latest book in which he discusses the topic of public policy disasters such as the 2008/2009 financial crisis. That reference got my attention. He stated the issue in his slide as follows:

“The decisions leading to these [public policy] disasters were made by very intelligent people with degrees from top universities, with great staffs and almost limitless information. And they were amply warned. The scientific question is why does this pathological behavior exist and what can we — must we — do about it?”

His answer was not simple. He described filters, rules and feedback loops. But the most interesting reference was his asking the attendees who had read Rudyard Kipling’s poem, The Gods of the Copybook Headings? What was the relevance to his core topic?

This artistic query prompted me to look up the poem. The voice in the poem portrays the fads and fallacies that appear in the “Market Place” and the political arena. These motivations end in inevitable disaster, again and again in human history. Whereas the wise sayings that appear in the children’s copybooks remain viable throughout time.

Selected stanzas that directly cite the insatiable allure of the market include:

As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all. . .

With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things. . .

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

The Cooperative Question

Are your credit union’s efforts driven by the Gods of the Market Place, or the verities of a children’s copybook?

P.s. His analytical approach to the 2008/2009 financial crisis will be the subject of another blog.

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Where is the Transparency for NCUA’s Actions at Municipal Credit Union

In May, NCUA became conservator of the $3.0 billion Municipal Credit Union in New York City.

In the June call report, 45 days after the conservator took over, Municipal reported a $123 million YTD loss. This appears to have been caused by the termination of a defined benefit plan triggering a required funding of the shortfall. This loss reduced the credit union’s net worth ratio to 3.41%, or undercapitalized, from over 7% the quarter prior to NCUA’s becoming conservator.

The September 2019 Update

The most recent call report implies that the credit union had net income of $10 million as the YTD loss has been reduced to $113 million. Comparing June and September call reports shows total membership declined by 35,000 and total employment reduced by 104 (to a total of 591) in the three months ending September.

The average salary and benefits are $369,000. Total salaries and benefits have increased to $163 million from $62 million for the previous year. This extraordinarily high number suggests the credit union is paying out the terminated defined benefit program.

The professional services expense is running almost three times greater than the prior year: $18 million versus $6.9 suggesting the consultants are well compensated, or is there another explanation?

The credit union’s loan originations are down significantly at $378 million from $615 million in 2018. Shares declined by $76 million in the quarter. Delinquency is .85% and the allowance accounted is funded at 227% of total delinquent loans. Net worth is 3.87%, or still undercapitalized.

What is Going On?

What is the purpose of all of these very expensive charges? Why close out the retirement fund now when liabilities will stretch decades into the future? Why were over 100 employees let go? What is the reason for the decline in lending? Is this tied to layoffs? Who is responsible for these decisions? Is anyone overseeing this rundown of the credit union? What is the plan?

Most importantly, whose interests is the conservator serving. Is it. . .

  • The employees who are taking the brunt of the layoffs?
  • The members whose numbers fell by 35,000, shares by $76 million, and loans by $24 million in the September quarter?
  • The conservator’s reputation and/or compensation?
  • The NCUA’s desire to protect its public standing?
  • The credit union system’s trusted role in New York City and the state?
  • The cooperative option in the nation’s financial system?

No Transparent Goals

No one knows, because NCUA has not provided any information that would give all stakeholders insight into the goals of this regulatory seizure.

Without any goals, it is easy to defend whatever outcome occurs. (“We tried our best.”)

Options are not debated. Critical constituencies are left out of the deliberations. The result is that confidence in the outcome will always be open to question.

Operating in secret will only create further uncertainty. Is the goal a turnaround to return the credit union to its owners and the community? Or is this just a dressing up exercise to sell off this 100-year franchise and branch network to the highest bidder? And thereby let NCUA wash its hands for its responsibility in this situation?

The silence of NCUA board members, some of whom have been before congress twice in the past ten days, is deafening. It is easy to talk about future visions and past activities, but who is dealing with the here and now? Not even Municipal’s website mentions the NCUA’s takeover.

Chairman Hood, this is occurring on your watch. Are you a CEO on the bridge or one sleeping in your cabin?

Who is Affected by Municipal’s Conservatorship?

The field of membership from the web site:

Who Can Join?

You can Join MCU if you are:

      • An employee of the City of New York
      • An employee of a hospital, nursing home, health facility, or their affiliates located in New York State
      • A Federal employee who works in the five boroughs
      • A State employee who works in the five boroughs
      • All students enrolled in a college, university, school, or institution, in the City University of New York (CUNY) education system
      • All students enrolled in St. John’s University who are attending campuses located in New York State
      • An employee working for agencies operating within the City of New York metropolitan area and which are at least in part funded by the City of New York or the State of New York
      • A retiree receiving a pension or annuity from one of the organizations that qualify for membership in MCU
      • An employee of an insurance company that offers health related insurance in the State of New York
      • An employee of companies that produce and/or supply hospitals in the State of New York with medical and other types of healthcare products
      • An employee of the City of Yonkers or Mount Vernon
      • An employee of a private college located in the City of New York
      • An employee of a private or public college in the counties of Nassau, Suffolk or Westchester
      • An employee of the Archdiocese of New York or Brooklyn
      • A member of certain private employers or industry groups
      • A family member of a member or individual who is eligible for membership. Eligible family members include those related by blood, marriage, adoption or living in the same household, including spouse, parent, stepparent, child, stepchild, sibling, stepsibling, grandchild, grandparent, or great grandparent. “Household” means living in the same residence and maintaining a single economic unit.
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The State of Your State

Each quarter, the FDIC issues a single page, three part economic and banking profile for every state. You can look up any state from their website.

What You Can Learn

The data is usually timely, released about two months after each quarter’s end. It is a good macro snapshot of key economic and financial institution trends.

It provides three current data sets:

  1. Macro economic indicators including the % changes in employment growth , housing permits issued, home price index and rate of bankruptcy filings.
  2. Banking trends showing number of institutions, total assets, asset quality, capital/earnings, liquidity and loan concentration trends for five quarter ends.
  3. Banking profile including the # of banks in the five largest deposit markets and the distribution by asset size within the state. Note the September report uses the latest 2019 bank deposit report.

Adding Credit Unions to the Totals

Using external databases from Callahans and NCUA, an analyst can easily add credit union numbers to the banking profile to see total market size and individual firm share.

In many states there is a marked difference in the balance sheet composition for banks and credit unions. However, growth and financial ratios can be compared for relative performance trends.

The one caution is that the institutional performance ratios from the FDIC data are based on the median( the number half way in the set), whereas most credit union data is a weighted average which is a better indicator of a system’s overall standing.

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Understanding Who We Are

There seems to be a lot of confusion, intentional or otherwise, about why credit unions cooperatives exist.

For some, buying banks is just another “voluntary, market-based transaction.”

One NCUA board member has asked that credit unions be subject to more rigorous consumer exams, just like the banks have.

For others, having greater capital and balance sheet options is necessary to “level the playing field.”

A Reminder of the Difference

At a time in the past when credit unions were in the words of the NCUA Chairman “on a roll”, he reminded them of their most important characteristic:

“Your future is brighter now that it has been ever before. You have the flexibility to do things you were never able to do. Plus you have the most important ingredient of all-the element missing in banks and S&Ls: your relationship with your members. You are cooperatives first and financial institutions second.” – Chairman Ed Callahan, NCUA 1982 Annual Report, pg 10.

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From Bipartisanship to Doubt — Professional Reputation in Washington

From Senator Sherrod Brown’s (D-OH), opening statement at the February 14, 2019 confirmation hearings for NCUA’s nominees Harper and Hood:

“Mr. Hood previously served as an NCUA Board Member from 2005 to 2010. Mr. Harper worked in the NCUA’s office of Public and Congressional Affairs and served as the chief policy advisor to the Chair from 2011 to 2017. Both nominees possess a deep understanding of credit unions and the issues that affect them.” [emphasis added]

From Senator Brown’s questioning of NCUA Chairman Hood at Senate Banking Committee hearing, December 5, 2019:

“I just am not sure you understand what an independent regulator is.”

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Are Credit Unions Missing Out on the Next Generation of Entrepreneurs?

At colleges and universities throughout the country, entrepreneurship is being encouraged by administrators and embraced by students and professors.

There are new, for credit, academic programs in innovation and new business ventures. Universities routinely offer prizes for the best ideas. Competition among startup ideas are held within and among campuses throughout the year.

What is TigerLaunch?

One of the recently promoted competition open to all students is TigerLaunch.

Here is the description from the website: “Sponsored by the Princeton Entrepreneurship Club, TigerLaunch is the nation’s largest student-run entrepreneurship competition dedicated to building a network of student founders at the university, regional and national levels. TigerLaunch combines networking, mentorship and funding opportunities to craft a distinct experience.”

The site lists the most recent winners and discusses financial and mentoring support available to attendees.

Where Are Credit Unions?

Three years ago, several enthusiastic freshmen entered George Washington University’s new venture competition with the idea of starting a credit union. Their mission statement: “to strengthen the GW community by helpings students and alumni bank cheaply, build credit, better manage their finances and develop valuable skill sets that they can bring to their careers.”

Their concept placed them in the top ten finalists (from several hundred submissions) gaining them a small cash prize and free office space. The university issued a letter of support

So where is this initiative today? This all-volunteer effort with undergraduates and advisors donating their time, ideas and energy?

The quick answer: it is in NCUA’s bureaucratic bog for new charters. The organizers recently shared the documentation with me for counsel. The first draft of their operating policies runs over 70 pages and includes bank secrecy, foreign assets control, disaster recovery, vendor management and additional statements more relevant to their immediate operations such as a loans and collection policy.

A second document is for asset/liability and liquidity management. It runs 10 pages.

The credit union has also developed five years of financial projections. In the initial years the balance sheet will be less than $500,000 total assets. Their products will be simple, and all transactions will be virtual. They have identified and selected their principal vendor relationships and even signed an agreement with a core provider.

They have $10K in the bank and want to raise a total $40K in initial capital. The goal is to operate at breakeven, relying entirely on student volunteers.

They have not been able to meet in person with NCUA. Their goal at this time is to be operational by next May to work through startup issues before classes resume in the fall.

The Agency has slowed the process to a crawl with paperwork requirements, so much that the original entrepreneurs are now seeking successors for this effort when they graduate.

The Dearth of New Charters

Few would question the need for credit union services in communities across America. But the passion and vision needed are drained of life by NCUA’s bureaucratic process that results in few if any new charters each year. Meanwhile 250 or more charters are closed via mergers or dissolution because of morale and/or leadership failings.

Without new generations of leaders inspired by the passion to serve and make a difference and using the latest technology, the credit union option will become a “mature” industry in slow decline. It will end up cannibalizing itself through self-interested mergers, and seek growth via bank and other acquisitions, not by deepening relationships and value for members and communities.

Which start up effort would you back? The students participating in their university’s innovation fairs, or those trying to bring cooperative financial services to the campus?

The answer could be a harbinger about the relevance of credit unions for today’s newest generation of financial customers. Chances are they won’t be called members, except by American Express.

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The Ax Lies Ready at the Root of the Trees. . .

Chairman Blaine Luetemeyer (R-MI) asking a question at the House Banking Committee on December 4, 2019 of Chairs Rodney Hood, NCUA, and Jelena Williams, FDIC.

Rep. Luetemeyer regarding the purchase of banks by credit unions: That is something on the radar of both groups. I’m fearful of a war beginning to break out. Are you guys at all concerned?

Chairman Hood: Sir, these are voluntary market-based transactions. . .

Chairman Williams: About 28 banks have been acquired by credit unions since 2011. There are additional mergers (sic) pending. Yes, we are looking at this. The two entities are not set up in the same way. And Congress did this for a particular reason. . .