One consequence of the 44 day federal governement shutdown is the absence of timely macro data on the US economy. Fortunately for credit unions there is another option to track the state of the movement.
Each quarter after the vast majority of credit union call reports have been filed, Callahans offers a preliminary financial and operational analysis of important industry trends.
Today at 2:00 PM EST the firm’s Trend Watch broadcast will give the September 30, 2025 year-to-date performance numbers. It’s free. You can sign up here. (link) or directly enter (link)
Three Reasons Why This Update Matters More Now
- With NCUA short-handed, this will be the first and most timely status report on the state of the industry–the positive trends and areas of concern. Individual credit union reports are available to be downloaded from the Peer analytical tools offered by the company.
- Although the federal government has reopened, normal monthly economic reports on jobs, unemployment, GDP growth and inflation for the months of September and October were not produced. In some cases the missing data points may not be replicable because they rely on contemporary personal interviews with households during the month .
Another example from yesterday’s Marketplace Daily Wrap: “The last time the Census Bureau gave its monthly report on retail sales in this country was two months ago. Those figures were for August.
We don’t know when we’ll get those figures for September and October, as the Bureau works through the data release backlog caused by the government shutdown.
3. Because there is a gap in macro economic trends and recent data, analysts must rely on the private sector, especially company’s quarterly reports. These will be the primary data source to evaluate the economy’s overall trends, especially consumer spending.
This week third quarter financial results from several big retailers, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target and Walmart will be announced along with their future outlook. Their revenue and profit trends will be vital to interpret consumers’ economic resilience.
Those firm’s nationwide sales will indicate whether consumers may or may not be tightening their wallets in the short and medium term.
Credit unions provide valuable insight especially on the lower and middle parts of the income spectrum. What are savings trends? Are loans increasing and in what categories? Are there signs of consumer financial pressures from delinquency numbers in credit cards, indirect autos or even student loans?
The Value of Context for Local Outcomes
Credit unions serve very specific or small areas of the consumer economy. Their local circumstances may not follow national macro trends. That economic diversity is critical to overall system soundness.
But knowing the system’s year over year growth rates and other critical trends can provide important perspective for the remainder of 2025, as well as next year’s budgets and plans.
When traditional data sources are lacking, a credit union advantage is their willingness to share with their peers how they see priorities for the future. Callahans will be the first chance to view this across the entire spectrum of credit union place and asset size.
Tune in at 2:00 PM. Send in your questions or comments via the chat.